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NOVEMBER 24, 2009 - A series of heavy rain events affected much of the southern region of the MARFC service area during the month of November. For the southern two thirds of Virginia and the southern half of the Delmarva Peninsula, rainfall has been 175 to 350 percent of average, which is well above average. Elsewhere, rainfall has been less abundant. Most of the eastern panhandle of West Virginia and the western half of Maryland has seen rainfall of about 75 percent of average. Elsewhere in Maryland, northern Delaware, and northern Virginia, rainfall has averaged around to 125 percent of average. Consequently, water supply is abundant in this region, especially the southern half of this portion of the MARFC service area. Long term trends continue to show that the wettest areas are in the east. The longer term pattern over the past 60 and 90 days shows above average rainfall on the Delmarva Peninsula, around the Chesapeake Bay, and the Tidewater region of Virginia where amounts have been 150 to 200 percent of average. For the remainder of Maryland, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, and Virginia outside of the Tidewater region, rainfall has increased over the past several weeks, particularly in southern Virginia. For the year to date, most areas have seen near average precipitation plus or minus 10 or 20 percent. The exception is around the Chesapeake Bay where precipitation amounts have been 125 to 135 percent of average. Current streamflow (November 24) across the southern half of the MARFC region from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that Delaware, most of Maryland, and Virginia have above to much above normal streamflows. This is a clear reflection of recent rains. Far western Maryland and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia have normal streamflows for this time of year. From a water supply perspective, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia and far western Maryland are no longer experiencing drought conditions. But, this region continues to be the driest and may need to be monitored for a return of drought like conditions in the coming months. The remainder of the southern portions of the MARFC service area have received abundant rainfall, especially in the short term. So, there are currently no concerns about drought or water supply shortages developing in the near future. Short term weather patterns indicate that precipitation amounts are expected to be below average as November ends. However, as December begins, indications point toward a return to wet, above average precipitation, weather conditions. Longer range outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center show that the 30 day outlook for December as well as the 90 day outlook covering December, 2009 through Febuary, 2010 suggest that near normal precipitation can be expected. Temperatures, particularly in the early parts of 2010, should be below average. This short term expectation of above average precipitation and long term expectations of near average precipitation should prevent drought conditions from returning to the eastern panhandle of West Virginia or far western Maryland. Nevertheless, this area will be watched. Also, as we progress into December, the likelihood for snowfall, mainly in the western mountains, will increase. This will add a new perspective to how precipitation will affect water supply. In summary, rainfall over the past several months across the southern half of the MARFC region has been abundant in most areas, especially in the east. But, rainfall has been somewhat lacking in some parts of the west, especially far western Maryland and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. No water shortages are currently anticipated for the near future. In fact, a plentiful water supply exists for most areas. Please send information about any "dead links" or any other comments specific to the WRO to William.Marosi@noaa.gov.
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