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OCTOBER 29, 2009 - October is ending on a wet note for all of the southern portion of the MARFC service area. However, in Virginia, this has not been the case for the entire month of October. Delaware and Maryland have had abundant rainfall in October with amounts of 175 to even as much as 225 percent of average... more than twice the average monthly rainfall for some. Rainfall in the eastern panhandle of West Virginia was generally 125 to 175 percent of average. But in much of Virginia, rainfall amounts were about average, plus or minus up to 25 percent. The driest region was in central Virginia. The longer term pattern over the past 60 and 90 days shows a similar story of above average rainfall on the Delmarva Peninsula and around the Chespeake Bay where amounts have been 150 to 200 percent of average. The remainder of Maryland, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, and the Tidewater region of Virginia has seen rainfall amounts of about average to 25 percent above average. Much of the remainder of Virginia has seen rainfall amounts of around average to 25 percent below average in some spots. For the most part, these long term trends show the wettest region to be in the east while the driest is in the west. Current streamflow (October 29) across the southern half of the MARFC region from the U.S. Geological Survey reflects this recent rainfall distribution. Most of Delaware, Maryland, and the eastern panhandle of West Virginia have above to much above normal streamflows for this time of year. However, for much of Virginia outside of the Chesapeake Bay area, streamflow values are only around to a bit above normal for this time of year. Though this is the driest area, these streamflow values are an improvement over the past several weeks due to the rain that has fallen. Groundwater monitoring well data from the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that groundwater ranges from about normal to above normal for this time in October for just about all areas. From a water supply perspective, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia and far western Maryland are no longer experiencing drought conditions according the the U. S. Drought Monitor dated October 27. Recent rains have alleviated this situation. Much of Virginia has been receiving adequate, though not abundant, rainfall. In the east, where rainfall has been plentiful over a longer period of time, there are currently no concerns about drought or water supply shortages developing in the near future. Short term weather patterns for the next 1 to 2 weeks indicate that below average rainfall is expected during this period. Longer range weather outlooks issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center suggest that near average rainfall can be expected. The 30 day outlook for November as well as the 90 day outlook covering November through January, 2010 suggest that both near normal rainfall and temperatures can be expected into early next year. If below average rainfall occurs over the next couple of weeks and possibly beyond, then it is possible that drought conditions could creep back into some southern portions of the MARFC service area, particularly in Virginia, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, and western Maryland. In summary, rainfall over the past several months across the southern half of the MARFC region has been abundant in the east but lacking in some parts of the west. No water shortages are currently anticipated for the near future. However, this situation will need to be monitored in the west, particularly if below average precipitation returns for along period. Vegetation is becoming dormant and the growing season has essentially ended. So, when it does rain, more of this water will soak into the ground, which should help to slow the onset of any drought conditions. Please send information about any "dead links" or any other comments specific to the WRO to William.Marosi@noaa.gov.
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