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Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center

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Water Resources Outlook - Southern MARFC Area
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Map of the Southern Water Resources Outlook Region

October 18, 2014 - After a dry September, October has been quite wet to date for the western half of the southern portion of the MARFC service area. In western Maryland, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, and the western half of Virginia, 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen so far which is 1 to over 3 inches above average. For the remainder of the area, mostly 2 to 3 inches of rain has fallen except for the southern Delmarva Peninsula and the Tidewater Region of southeast Virginia where only about an inch has fallen. Temperatures have been quite warm averaging mostly 1 1/2 to 4 degrees above normal. Over the past 90 days, much of central and western Virginia and most of the eastern panhandle of West Virginia have been 1 to 3 inches below normal. On the wetter side of things, far western Maryland and Tidewater Virginia have been 2 to 5 inches above normal. Elsewhere, near average rain has fallen.

Current (October 18) streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey shows that streamflows are running near normal to much above normal. This is a result of the recent heavy rain event and levels are expected to slowly drop. Groundwater levels are mostly near or above normal.

The weather outlook for the rest of October calls for near or below average precipitation. Temperatures are expected to begin the period below average but slowly moderate to above average by the end of the month. The NWS Climate Prediction Center's 30-day outlook for November calls for near average precipitation and above average temperatures. The 90 day outlook for November, 2014 through January, 2015 calls for near or above average precipitation as well as near or above average temperatures.

A significant amount of rain has fallen in the western half of the southern portion of the MARFC service area so far this month helping to offset the growing deficits that had been developing as a result of a fairly long stretch of dry weather. This rain certainly helped and those areas in central and western Virginia along with the eastern panhandle of West Virginia where water resources and supplies had been fair have now been upgraded to good. Continued wet weather is needed for further improvemensts. For now, it appears that this brief wet period may be ending and we are likely to return to dry weather, at least for awhile. So, the outlook for water resources and water supplies is "good" for all of the southern portion of the MARFC service area. As we get deeper into Autumn with cooler temperatures and a weakening sun, further degradation will be slow to occur and improvement may occur quickly if wet weather were to continue.


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Page last modified: May 7, 2014 15:11
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