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HAS/WPC Forecast Information

 

Forecasting anything is not a clairvoyant science. Forecasting precipitation is no exception. When we forecast future precipitation, the amounts we expect are attentuated and broadened to account for our uncertainty. For example, if we anticipate that a large portion of Middle Tennessee will get an inch of rainfall (on average), in most cases it is a realistic expectation (especially in thunderstorm events) that some scattered places within this region will get at least two inches while other places nearby get very little. Because we cannot pinpoint specifically which small areas will get two inches and which will get very little, we 'smooth-out' the precip forecast to exhibit essentially an average over the area (areal average).  This compensates for our uncertainty.

thumbnail of HAS's QPFLatest 48-hr HAS QPF Image  (This image can be seen in more detail by clicking on the image or its label.)  It shows the most recent 48-hr total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) generated by the HAS Unit at the RFC.  The QPF amounts shown here were used as input to NWS Hydrologic River Models.  Typically, a HAS QPF is generated in the morning and evening 7 days a week.  The forecast is generated by hand for eight 6-hr periods.  These individual periods can be viewed by clicking on the links below.  Generally, they are available about a half-hour after the QPF has been saved by the HAS forecaster.  A SHEF-encoded text product of the HAS QPF is also produced. thumbnail of WPC's QPFLatest 48-hr WPC QPF Image  (This image can be seen in more detail by clicking on the image or its label.)  It shows the most recent 48-hr total QPF generated by the Hydrologic Prediction Center.   This image is generated from national QPF guidance provided by the Hydrologic Prediction Center. (See below.)
thumbnail of several models' QPF Latest montage of various models' QPF The following is a montage of various model forecasts, shown for comparison only. Only the map marked (Fcst) is the official QPF used in our river model.

Extended QPF (irregular basis)

The following graphics, if any are visible, are created only during events when certain criteria are met. In certain situations, the OHRFC produces 60- or 72-hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts. If such a forecast was issued within the past 24 hours, you can view it from the links below.  Otherwise, no links are shown. Please note, however, that only the cumulative total is shown for a forecast; no intermediate totals.  For example, if we produce a 72-hr forecast, the 60-hr forecast shown on this page will show another forecast from a different forecast cycle, not a partial total of the 72-hr forecast.

thumbnail of HAS's 60-hr QPFLatest 60-hr HAS QPF Image  (This image can be seen in more detail by clicking on the image or its label.)  It shows the most recent 60-hr total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) generated by the HAS Unit at the RFC.  The QPF amounts shown here were used as input to NWS Hydrologic River Models.  Typically, a HAS QPF is generated in the morning and evening 7 days a week.  The forecast is generated by hand for eight 6-hr periods.  These individual periods can be viewed by clicking on the links below.  Generally, they are available about a half-hour after the QPF has been saved by the HAS forecaster.  A SHEF-encoded text product of the HAS QPF is also produced.  thumbnail of WPC's 60-hr QPFLatest 60-hr WPC QPF Image  (This image can be seen in more detail by clicking on the image or its label.)  It shows the most recent 60-hr total QPF generated by the Hydrologic Prediction Center.   This image is generated from national QPF guidance provided by the Hydrologic Prediction Center. (See below.)
thumbnail of HAS's 72-hr QPFLatest 72-hr HAS QPF Image  (This image can be seen in more detail by clicking on the image or its label.)  It shows the most recent 72-hr total Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) generated by the HAS Unit at the RFC.  The QPF amounts shown here were used as input to NWS Hydrologic River Models.  Typically, a HAS QPF is generated in the morning and evening 7 days a week.  The forecast is generated by hand for eight 6-hr periods.  These individual periods can be viewed by clicking on the links below.  Generally, they are available about a half-hour after the QPF has been saved by the HAS forecaster.  A SHEF-encoded text product of the HAS QPF is also produced.  thumbnail of WPC's 72-hr QPFLatest 72-hr WPC QPF Image  (This image can be seen in more detail by clicking on the image or its label.)  It shows the most recent 72-hr total QPF generated by the Hydrologic Prediction Center.   This image is generated from national QPF guidance provided by the Hydrologic Prediction Center. (See below.)

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National Weather Service
Ohio River Forecast Center
1901 South State Route 134
Wilmington, OH 45177-9708
Page last modified: Wednesday, February 19, 2014 1:59 PM
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