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Animated American Flag Waving Ohio River Flows during El Niño and La Niña Events  

Interpretation of the Data

El Niño and La Niña events play a critical role in autumn through spring flows. El Niño is referred to as the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean along and east of the dateline while La Niña is referred to as the cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean along and east of the dateline.

The composite El Niño indicates flows along the entire reach of the Ohio River tend to be below normal while the composite La Niña indicates flows along the entire reach of the tend to be above normal.

However, research (Noel, Changnon, 1997) indicates it is not that helpful to use a composite for El Niño or La Niña unless you are in specific parts of the country like the Upper Midwest or Texas where signs are consistent. It is important to look at the strength of the event. During weak to moderate El Niño events, flows tend to be below normal while during strong events flows tend to be above normal. This opposite effect is also true of La Niña events. During weak to moderate La Niña events, flow tends to be above normal while during strong events, flows tend to be below normal.

Therefore, it is very important to not only know what type of event you are have, but the magnitude and intensity of that event. Weak to moderate events in the Pacific Ocean do not have nearly the global impact that the strong events have. It makes sense that weather closer to home play as much or more of a role during the weak to moderate events, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, during the strong ENSO events, they tend to dwarf other weather factors closer to home form autumn to spring.

Research done by Jim Noel and Ron Curtis. Data entry done by Ron Curtis and Link Crawford. Web support given by Mark Fenbers.

To get updates on La Niña or El Niño, see the latest NWS/Climate Prediction Center Advisory.*

La Niña Years    Sewickly, PA

  Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr Total Flow ENSO
1950-51 14.6 52.0 73.9 79.5 82.4 66.7 73.7 442.8 Mod
1954-55 51.0 21.4 46.5 45.6 56.7 99.7 36.7 357.6 Mod
1955-56 14.8 30.7 22.6 13.7 89.1 93.7 73.7 338.3 Mod
1956-57 10.2 12.5 54.9 49.9 59.8 40.3 79.8 307.4 Weak
1961-62 6.7 21.8 29.7 40.6 37.6 72.1 69.0 277.5 Weak
1964-65 5.3 8.6 40.8 60.4 50.4 58.5 60.2 284.2 Weak
1967-68 30.5 35.4 40.8 31.3 41.7 45.4 29.0 254.1 Weak
1970-71 25.5 48.3 60.3 42.1 64.9 68.7 28.6 338.4 Mod
1973-74 14.6 32.6 50.9 73.2 36.4 59.0 53.1 319.8 Strong
1974-75 12.5 30.2 53.9 57.3 74.9 73.0 43.8 345.6 Weak
1975-76 32.1 25.0 42.5 50.1 78.1 52.7 27.0 307.5 Strong
1983-84 9.0 31.0 61.0 20.9 63.9 61.3 72.8 319.9 Weak
1984-85 12.9 40.0 54.9 29.2 48.0 75.7 49.0 309.7 Weak
1988-89 11.1 32.0 26.6 41.7 56.3 59.4 61.3 288.4 Strong
1995-96 8.8 28.8 30.9 72.4 65.7 76.1 45.3 328.0 Weak
1998-99 8.0 6.1 9.4 53.9 46.3 52.9 60.7 237.3 Strong
1999-00 8.5 18.1 32.7 25.5 52.1 40.4 64.4 241.7 Strong
2000-01 16.7 13.1 34.1 20.1 57.8 42.7 53.3 237.8 Weak
 
ENSO AVG 16.2 27.1 42.6 44.9 59.0 63.2 54.5 307.6  
AVG 15.2 26.3 40.6 45.6 49.6 65.4 56.6 299.3  
40% chance of above normal flow in strong events, 69% chance in weak to moderate events

El Niño Years    Sewickly, PA

  Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Total Flow ENSO
1957-58 5.1 8.0 46.5 28.6 22.9 49.2 60.3 220.6 Mod
1963-64 3.1 9.4 18.3 39.5 22.2 108.5 70.8 271.8 Mod
1965-66 8.2 20.5 21.4 28.0 61.1 47.4 45.4 232.0 Mod
1968-69 7.9 26.7 41.9 40.4 41.2 18.7 53.3 230.1 Weak
1970-71 25.5 48.3 60.3 42.1 64.9 68.7 28.6 338.4 Weak
1972-73 17.2 49.7 88.9 32.6 41.7 59.5 57.3 346.9 Strong
1976-77 39.0 23.4 26.6 10.5 33.7 77.6 50.2 261.0 Weak
1977-78 35.3 37.8 67.6 50.4 23.7 64.9 56.0 335.7 Weak
1982-83 8.2 23.6 41.6 29.9 34.0 46.4 61.8 245.5 Strong
1986-87 29.1 48.4 62.2 31.1 25.2 33.2 74.3 303.5 Mod
1987-88 18.2 18.9 50.8 30.1 49.7 43.6 33.8 245.1 Mod
1991-92 6.4 9.3 32.5 33.8 40.0 53.8 51.1 226.9 Mod
1994-95 13.1 27.8 44.3 43.1 29.6 43.8 29.6 231.3 Mod
1997-98 12.8 45.0 42.0 76.6 50.8 57.2 59.5 343.9 Strong
2002-03 10.2 27.1 39.9 38.2 37.0 73.4 46.7 272.5 Mod
2004-05 17.5 31.6 57.2 102.2 50.1       Weak
                 
ENSO AVG 16.1 28.5 46.4 41.1 39.2 56.4 51.9 273.7
AVG 15.2 26.3 40.6 45.6 49.6 65.4 56.6 299.3
66% chance of above normal flow in strong events, 33% chance in weak to moderate events

La Niña Years    Huntington, WV

  Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr Total Flow ENSO
1950-51 24.5 83.8 177.4 171.4 206.3 175.0 167.4 1005.8 Mod
1954-55 84.8 39.3 84.0 108.6 159.0 284.1 90.7 850.5 Mod
1955-56 21.8 47.1 36.0 26.3 219.4 229.9 169.5 750.0 Mod
1956-57 21.8 28.0 110.9 119.5 178.6 97.7 182.3 738.8 Weak
1961-62 17.9 47.8 84.5 103.0 108.6 200.3 154.2 716.3 Weak
1964-65 16.6 21.6 78.0 138.2 123.7 155.7 165.9 699.7 Weak
1967-68 41.9 53.6 88.7 76.1 109.2 123.6 87.4 580.5 Weak
1970-71 41.1 101.0 128.9 101.5 173.5 156.6 57.7 760.3 Mod
1973-74 26.7 86.6 118.8 193.2 97.7 157.4 140.1 820.5 Strong
1974-75 26.3 62.7 141.7 155.2 208.0 239.9 132.7 966.5 Weak
1975-76 72.4 56.5 89.2 144.7 165.1 124.7 68.4 721.0 Strong
1983-84 28.7 70.8 131.8 55.3 128.7 148.2 181.8 745.3 Weak
1984-85 25.5 75.5 99.9 72.4 120.8 150.0 106.7 647.8 Weak
1988-89 18.5 58.5 53.2 93.6 138.0 131.3 141.3 634.4 Strong
1995-96 25.6 61.9 70.1 185.2 143.3 180.4 106.1 772.6 Weak
1998-99 19.7 18.2 28.7 141.8 108.5 142.4 112.2 571.5 Strong
1999-00 18.6 39.0 62.5 51.5 138.3 89.0 143.0 541.9 Strong
2000-01 28.7 26.9 65.2 48.8 113.6 92.2 108.5 483.9 Weak
                   
ENSO AVG 31.2 54.4 91.6 104.8 146.7 159.9 128.7 722.6
AVG 31.4 54.9 87.3 108.2 126.6 158.0 132.8 699.2
20% chance of above normal flow in strong events, 61% chance in weak to moderate events

El Niño Years    Huntington, WV

  Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Total Flow ENSO
1957-58 16.3 30.8 118.7 87.7 78.3 116.2 145.6 593.6 Mod
1963-64 6.6 15.1 28.9 76.3 57.2 242.7 169.1 595.9 Mod
1965-66 21.7 30.9 31.2 59.2 150.7 89.9 101.8 485.4 Mod
1968-69 24.3 58.7 76.2 91.1 105.6 54.2 113.8 523.9 Weak
1970-71 41.1 101.0 128.9 101.5 173.5 156.6 57.7 760.3 Weak
1972-73 41.4 125.1 215.2 83.5 117.8 150.9 166.4 900.3 Strong
1976-77 92.7 47.7 64.0 23.7 84.5 179.6 140.1 632.3 Weak
1977-78 69.7 88.3 150.8 133.0 72.8 164.6 131.6 810.8 Weak
1982-83 16.3 44.5 101.4 57.5 89.8 103.7 173.2 586.4 Strong
1986-87 49.8 98.3 133.1 73.9 74.4 82.2 193.4 705.1 Mod
1987-88 28.7 30.9 86.0 65.6 108.6 91.4 76.1 487.3 Mod
1991-92 11.7 22.8 85.2 68.0 78.1 129.2 105.0 500.0 Mod
1994-95 23.8 46.6 80.2 117.9 91.6 106.3 62.5 528.9 Mod
1997-98 21.1 71.1 74.0 154.9 155.8 145.3 146.2 768.4 Strong
2002-03 30.2 74.1 88.8 81.5 134.4 148.4 108.8 666.2 Mod
2004-05 61.6 91.1 130.9 218.8 125.9       Weak
                 
ENSO AVG 34.8 61.1 99.6 93.4 106.2 130.7 126.1 643.0
AVG 31.4 54.9 87.3 108.2 126.6 158.0 132.8 699.2
66% chance of above normal flow in strong events, 33% chance in weak to moderate events

La Niña Years    Cincinnati, OH

  Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr Total Flow ENSO
1950-51 34.9 104.0 232.1 235.7 291.5 235.5 212.6 1346.3 Mod
1954-55 84.6 44.5 84.1 141.6 204.5 408.2 109.5 1077.0 Mod
1955-56 26.1 48.4 39.5 26.3 298.3 300.7 226.6 966.0 Mod
1956-57 25.1 31.7 132.4 143.5 258.7 121.6 243.3 956.3 Weak
1961-62 20.9 50.3 107.7 139.8 148.1 302.3 205.8 974.9 Weak
1964-65 20.0 28.5 101.4 163.6 154.1 203.9 228.1 899.6 Weak
1967-68 47.9 62.6 119.5 90.4 127.5 173.1 127.4 748.4 Weak
1970-71 48.5 128.2 154.3 128.2 230.0 196.3 76.0 961.5 Mod
1973-74 33.0 98.7 160.3 281.9 132.2 201.5 188.4 1096.0 Strong
1974-75 29.2 77.9 172.1 195.5 265.8 312.4 186.7 1239.6 Weak
1975-76 94.8 68.8 114.3 202.5 208.9 151.1 81.8 921.3 Strong
1983-84 45.6 93.8 169.9 83.3 160.8 197.1 247.2 997.7 Weak
1984-85 35.5 102.1 144.9 104.9 167.9 197.4 150.3 903.0 Weak
1988-89 20.4 69.2 65.7 130.9 211.2 181.9 196.1 875.4 Strong
1995-96 31.4 71.0 87.7 241.7 183.4 237.0 160.9 1013.1 Weak
1998-99 21.1 21.5 34.5 178.2 134.9 180.3 118.0 688.5 Strong
1999-00 20.0 39.0 69.9 62.0 183.6 117.8 186.2 678.5 Strong
2000-01 33.8 29.6 84.6 55.0 145.3 117.8 127.4 593.5 Weak
                 
La Niña AVG 37.3 65.0 115.3 144.7 189.3 218.7 170.7 940.9
AVG 37.7 66.4 111.8 139.7 165.6 204.4 173.1 898.7
20% chance of above normal flow in strong events, 69% chance in weak to moderate events

El Niño Years    Cincinnati, OH

  Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Total Flow ENSO
1957-58 17.8 47.5 157.2 115.0 100.7 139.3 195.9 773.4 Mod
1963-64 12.0 25.0 31.0 77.5 73.9 336.6 201.7 757.7 Mod
1965-66 34.0 37.0 35.0 86.0 193.0 104.9 120.0 609.9 Mod
1968-69 24.4 60.3 89.6 113.4 139.1 63.5 134.9 625.2 Weak
1970-71 48.5 128.2 154.3 128.2 230.0 196.3 76.0 961.5 Weak
1972-73 47.4 164.7 280.6 110.1 151.8 198.1 221.8 1174.5 Strong
1976-77 104.1 61.8 78.2 33.8 97.5 217.3 177.5 770.2 Weak
1977-78 81.2 96.8 197.9 185.6 107.4 259.7 171.4 1100.0 Weak
1982-83 21.6 55.1 138.3 91.5 123.3 118.0 203.0 750.8 Strong
1986-87 67.1 126.5 181.0 100.9 106.0 113.6 251.2 946.3 Mod
1987-88 31.0 34.3 99.5 84.8 146.4 120.5 110.4 626.9 Mod
1991-92 15.3 27.4 114.4 93.0 91.3 170.5 134.7 646.6 Mod
1994-95 25.5 50.9 91.8 152.6 125.3 145.5 84.2 675.8 Mod
1997-98 22.6 67.2 76.5 176.6 195.9 172.0 197.4 908.2 Strong
2002-03 38.5 98.5 116.8 105.7 187.6 197.8 148.1 893.0 Mod
2004-05 79.2 125.0 177.5 322.0 171.8       Weak
                 
El Niño AVG 41.9 75.4 126.2 123.5 140.1 170.2 161.9 834.7
AVG 37.7 66.4 111.8 139.7 165.6 204.4 173.1 898.7
66% chance of above normal flow in strong events, 33% chance in weak to moderate events

La Niña Years    Louisville, KY

  Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr Total Flow ENSO
1950-51 41.3 131.9 266.0 286.0 357.2 283.5 242.8 1608.6 Mod
1954-55 85.7 45.8 91.9 154.0 230.2 481.9 122.4 1211.9 Mod
1955-56 33.0 67.3 45.1 31.3 376.5 345.6 265.9 1164.7 Mod
1956-57 27.5 34.5 143.5 159.9 303.0 136.4 290.8 1095.6 Weak
1961-62 24.0 50.0 125.3 171.1 172.6 365.5 235.5 1144.0 Weak
1964-65 23.2 24.7 114.6 181.2 177.3 242.0 272.0 1035.0 Weak
1967-68 43.7 60.4 145.9 98.8 141.9 207.7 156.8 855.2 Weak
1970-71 47.1 124.1 173.8 149.4 270.0 223.3 79.8 1067.5 Mod
1973-74 36.1 110.0 177.5 332.0 149.6 230.9 214.6 1250.7 Strong
1974-75 36.3 86.8 206.4 239.3 318.5 386.3 233.3 1506.9 Weak
1975-76 109.9 75.6 133.6 231.3 259.2 179.6 96.1 1085.3 Strong
1983-84 56.6 97.2 188.8 82.1 179.0 239.2 315.6 1158.5 Weak
1984-85 32.2 113.5 176.5 121.0 199.8 223.9 159.5 1026.4 Weak
1988-89 22.0 89.6 83.0 167.8 289.6 227.7 235.2 1114.9 Strong
1995-96 37.6 83.0 103.8 270.2 208.7 277.5 197.9 1178.7 Weak
1998-99 23.3 24.1 43.8 219.9 166.0 210.8 132.5 819.9 Strong
1999-00 21.0 41.3 78.2 77.4 221.8 142.2 213.1 795.0 Strong
2000-01 38.3 32.9 104.3 63.8 179.0 141.0 144.0 703.3 Weak
                 
La Niña AVG 41.0 71.8 133.4 168.6 233.3 255.5 200.4 1101.2
AVG 38.0 68.9 122.9 165.1 194.5 242.3 204.5 1036.2
40% chance of above normal flow in strong events, 54% chance in weak to moderate events

El Niño Years    Louisville, KY

  Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Total Flow ENSO
1957-58 19.5 67.6 187.6 136.3 122.3 154.3 224.3 911.9 Mod
1963-64 8.20 18.2 33.0 85.8 86.3 424.5 239.0 895.0 Mod
1965-66 35.6 36.6 38.5 104.1 228.9 110.6 132.9 687.2 Mod
1968-69 23.1 60.2 102.5 142.4 168.3 69.4 161.0 726.9 Weak
1970-71 47.1 124.1 173.8 149.4 270.0 223.3 79.8 1067.5 Weak
1972-73 53.7 187.6 321.3 120.1 168.1 226.8 248.8 1326.4 Strong
1976-77 112.5 68.9 82.6 38.6 104.2 253.7 200.0 860.5 Weak
1977-78 89.1 113.6 240.7 195.8 113.4 324.5 191.7 1268.8 Weak
1982-83 23.0 57.0 164.5 88.8 136.6 123.4 240.5 833.8 Strong
1986-87 78.3 146.8 215.2 114.2 123.5 145.1 285.4 1108.5 Mod
1987-88 32.7 37.4 109.1 102.5 172.8 136.6 134.1 725.2 Mod
1991-92 15.9 30.1 144.0 114.4 99.5 200.6 150.6 755.1 Mod
1994-95 26.4 51.6 107.7 171.0 148.9 172.1 104.2 781.9 Mod
1997-98 24.0 75.8 92.4 199.4 227.5 201.5 242.5 1063.1 Strong
2002-03 44.9 122.8 145.5 126.3 228.1 240.5 179.4 1087.5 Mod
2004-05 95.7 161.0 215.1 383.9 208.1       Weak
                 
El Niño AVG 40.7 85.0 148.3 142.1 162.9 200.5 187.6 940.0
AVG 38.0 68.9 122.9 165.1 194.5 242.3 204.5 1036.2
66% chance of above normal flow in strong events, 33% chance in weak to moderate events

La Niña Years    Evansville, IN

  Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr Total Flow ENSO
1950-51 47.5 148.8 308.1 342.3 405.8 364.4 282.9 1899.8 Mod
1954-55 87.5 47.0 95.3 174.4 250.7 557.3 181.1 1393.3 Mod
1955-56 36.2 69.2 52.1 32.4 444.7 427.3 310.4 1372.3 Mod
1956-57 34.0 40.0 146.6 170.3 378.9 160.6 339.8 1270.2 Weak
1961-62 27.0 56.7 154.7 198.9 194.8 472.4 298.7 1403.2 Weak
1964-65 27.7 29.1 136.6 204.0 215.2 258.8 322.9 1194.3 Weak
1967-68 48.1 69.3 189.8 110.6 169.4 237.3 235.6 1060.0 Weak
1970-71 56.1 134.5 188.8 182.8 288.5 268.7 90.1 1209.5 Mod
1973-74 39.7 120.6 229.0 424.3 198.5 278.1 262.7 1552.9 Strong
1974-75 59.5 95.3 219.6 287.7 369.1 481.9 318.2 1831.3 Weak
1975-76 130.2 89.1 157.0 276.4 308.4 197.5 118.9 1277.5 Strong
1983-84 61.7 110.4 226.8 104.2 199.6 260.4 362.0 1325.1 Weak
1984-85 45.4 132.2 211.4 167.3 211.9 261.5 203.9 1233.6 Weak
1988-89 23.6 101.5 100.6 206.3 316.4 261.9 254.0 1264.3 Strong
1995-96 44.5 100.3 107.0 272.7 246.3 320.6 227.8 1319.2 Weak
1998-99 23.4 26.1 45.4 251.3 214.3 241.6 140.0 942.1 Strong
1999-00 21.5 38.3 76.6 89.2 241.5 170.3 218.1 855.5 Strong
2000-01 39.0 33.3 113.2 65.1 213.0 165.6 156.4 785.6 Weak
                   
La Niña AVG 47.4 80.1 153.3 197.8 270.4 299.2 240.2 1288.3
AVG 48.7 85.7 154.8 193.9 231.2 282.4 236.2 1232.9
20% chance of above normal flow in strong events, 54% chance in weak to moderate events

El Niño Years    Evansville, IN

  Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. Total Flow ENSO
1957-58 21.6 112.2 238.8 165.4 158.5 169.0 249.2 1114.7 Mod
1963-64 10.1 20.9 37.1 87.6 98.4 540.1 263.1 1057.3 Mod
1965-66 42.9 42.5 43.1 136.5 268.7 125.8 148.5 808.0 Mod
1968-69 26.6 65.3 110.8 163.9 220.8 81.6 193.1 862.1 Weak
1970-71 56.1 134.5 188.8 182.8 288.5 268.7 90.1 1209.5 Weak
1972-73 61.9 214.9 394.3 162.3 206.6 276.0 313.2 1629.2 Strong
1976-77 111.4 79.2 88.0 42.6 104.5 302.6 234.6 962.9 Weak
1977-78 113.7 133.6 293.4 220.3 182.3 360.6 214.9 1518.1 Weak
1982-83 38.0 69.7 192.1 125.5 154.3 130.5 264.0 974.1 Strong
1986-87 79.4 151.5 255.4 115.0 124.8 166.9 324.9 1217.9 Mod
1987-88 38.9 42.0 107.5 129.8 205.3 143.5 145.5 812.5 Mod
1991-92 18.5 38.4 170.4 142.7 110.1 231.7 175.5 887.3 Mod
1994-95 29.5 56.8 124.9 191.7 181.0 202.2 120.3 906.4 Mod
1997-98 25.9 80.5 104.0 217.6 241.9 219.8 266.6 1156.3 Strong
2002-03 62.9 155.6 178.0 154.6 252.1 292.2 214.7 1310.1 Mod
2004-05 97.7 175.0 244.6 458.9 223.1       Weak
                 
El Niño AVG 52.2 98.3 173.2 168.6 188.8 234.1 214.5 1095.1
AVG 48.7 85.7 154.8 193.9 231.2 282.4 236.2 1232.9
66% chance of above normal flow in strong events, 42% chance in weak to moderate events

* Observed flows courtesy United States CORPS of Engineers and the United States Geological Survey



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Ohio River Forecast Center
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Page last modified: Wednesday, February 8, 2006
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