CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-271800- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 600 PM EDT WED NOV 13 2002 DROUGHT/WATER RESOURCE STATEMENT...NUMBER 24 DROUGHT/WATER RESOURCE STATEMENT FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... ...NEW YORK CONTINUES DROUGHT WARNINGS IN 9 COUNTIES AND WATCHES IN 9 COUNTIES... ...NEW JERSEY CONTINUES A STATEWIDE DROUGHT EMERGENCY BUT EASES UP ON WATER USE RESTRICTIONS... ...NEW YORK CITY DOWNGRADES STAGE 1 EMERGENCY TO A WATCH... IN LATE OCTOBER, U.S. AGRICULTURE SECRETARY VENEMAN DECLARED A DROUGHT DISASTER IN NEW JERSEY WHICH ALLOWS FARMERS WHO SUFFERED SIGNIFICANT CROP LOSSES TO APPLY FOR FEDERAL FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE. MANY NEW JERSEY FARMERS SUFFERED LOSSES OF 50 PERCENT OR MORE, NOTABLY IN COMMODITIES SUCH AS CORN AND SOYBEAN. ON OCTOBER 30TH, NEW YORK CITY MAYOR BLOOMBERG AND THE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION ANNOUNCED THAT THE CITY'S STAGE 1 DROUGHT EMERGENCY WAS DOWNGRADED TO A DROUGHT WATCH EFFECTIVE NOVEMBER 1. THE CITY HAD OPERATED UNDER STAGE 1 DROUGHT EMERGENCY RESTRICTIONS SINCE APRIL. COUNTY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONNECTICUT. THE ENTIRE BROOKHAVEN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA RECEIVED AN AVERAGE 5.54 INCHES FOR THE MONTH WHICH WAS 154 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY AND UNION COUNTY NJ RECEIVED OVER 7 INCHES FOR THE MONTH WHICH IS GREATER THAN 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ON THE OTHERHAND, IN CONNECTICUT; COUNTY TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WERE BELOW NORMAL OR 85 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ______________ DROUGHT DECLARATION STATUS ____________________ THE COUNTIES THAT ARE UNDER A DROUGHT EMERGENCY IN THE BROOKHAVEN SERVICE AREA ARE: IN NEW JERSEY BERGEN...ESSEX...HUDSON...PASSAIC AND UNION THE COUNTIES THAT ARE UNDER A DROUGHT WARNING IN THE BROOKHAVEN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA ARE: IN NEW YORK ROCKLAND...WESTCHESTER...NEW YORK...BRONX...RICHMOND... KINGS...QUEENS...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK THE COUNTIES THAT ARE UNDER A DROUGHT WATCH IN THE BROOKHAVEN HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA ARE: IN NEW YORK ORANGE AND PUTNAM _________ COUNTY PRECIPITATION TOTALS/DEPARTURES ___________ THE FOLLOWING STATISTICS ARE COMPILED FROM COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVERS. THESE NUMBERS ARE THROUGH NOVEMBER 12TH. MONTH LAST LAST LAST SO 90 DAYS 180 DAYS 365 DAYS FAR TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP. TOTAL/DEP./ % ... NEW YORK ... DELAWARE 0.8 13.5 2.8 24.1 1.8 43.1 1.9 5 SULLIVAN 0.8 14.7 3.4 24.9 1.5 42.7 -2.2 -4 ... NEW JERSEY ... BERGEN 0.6 14.7 3.1 23.7 0.1 40.0 -5.8 -12 ESSEX 0.7 14.3 2.9 23.2 -0.4 40.2 -6.4 -13 HUDSON 0.8 14.1 3.3 22.3 0.3 37.8 -5.9 -12 PASSAIC 0.6 14.5 2.5 23.7 -1.0 41.4 -7.0 -14 UNION 0.8 15.2 3.7 23.4 -0.9 40.0 -7.3 -14 MIDDLESEX 0.8 15.7 4.6 25.4 1.6 41.3 -4.9 -10 MONMOUTH 0.9 15.9 4.9 24.9 1.8 39.3 -6.7 -13 MORRIS 0.7 14.1 1.7 22.9 -2.9 40.7 -8.9 -17 SOMERSET 0.7 14.5 2.9 23.8 -0.8 40.3 -6.2 -12 SUSSEX 0.6 14.0 2.5 23.7 -0.4 40.7 -4.8 -10 THE FOLLOWING STATISTICS ARE COMPILED FROM COOPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVERS. THESE NUMBERS ARE THROUGH NOVEMBER 12TH. COUNTY PCPN DEP PCPN DEP PCPN DEP PCPN DEP SINCE SINCE SINCE SINCE NOV 1 2002 OCT 1 2002 JAN 1 2002 NOV 1 2001 ... CONNECTICUT ... FAIRFIELD 0.74 -0.99 4.82 -0.75 36.86 -4.07 40.07 -9.46 HARTFORD 1.12 -0.62 5.37 -0.25 32.86 -7.86 35.72 -13.67 LITCHFIELD 0.80 -0.88 4.57 -0.95 33.80 -6.64 36.88 -12.00 MIDDLESEX 1.16 -0.62 3.91 -1.87 28.16 -13.62 31.17 -19.53 NEW HAVEN 1.05 -0.74 3.64 -2.11 27.27 -14.60 30.35 -20.44 NEW LONDON 1.15 -0.55 5.00 -0.50 36.15 -3.55 39.09 -9.21 TOLLAND 0.79 -0.91 3.97 -1.57 33.38 -6.76 36.51 -12.19 WINDHAM 0.81 -0.95 3.49 -2.15 31.75 -8.97 34.52 -14.96 ... NEW YORK ... DUTCHESS 0.69 -0.83 5.25 +0.17 32.21 -4.91 35.21 -9.43 GREENE 0.65 -0.89 7.64 +2.42 37.72 +0.82 41.94 -2.44 NASSAU 0.81 -0.77 6.26 +1.40 37.85 +0.27 40.61 -4.81 NYC 0.83 -0.71 7.93 +3.15 36.98 -0.16 40.52 -4.18 ORANGE 0.73 -0.85 7.15 +2.01 38.78 +0.44 42.18 -3.88 PUTNAM 0.73 -0.92 6.18 +0.73 37.85 -1.96 41.36 -6.61 ROCKLAND 0.64 -1.10 6.97 +1.47 38.79 -2.39 42.46 -7.04 SUFFOLK 1.05 -0.60 6.12 +0.71 36.97 -1.76 39.95 -7.30 ULSTER 0.96 -0.69 8.36 +2.87 42.36 +3.43 46.45 -0.52 WESTCHSTR 0.78 -0.96 6.41 +0.87 41.27 +0.41 45.17 -4.17 ____________________ RESERVOIR LEVELS _________________________ COMBINED STORAGE IN THE 13 MAJOR RESERVOIRS SERVING NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AS OF NOVEMBER 7TH WAS AT 75.2 PERCENT CAPACITY, WHICH IS 10 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR. CAPACITY IN THE INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IS AS FOLLOWS... PERCENT CAPACITY TREND CAPACITY BILLION GAL NEWARK RESERVOIRS (5) 58.1 % 14.4 STEADY JERSEY CITY RESERVOIRS (2) 79.6 % 11.4 HIGHER NORTH JERSEY DISTRICT (2) 82.6 % 36.6 STEADY UNITED WATER OF NJ (4) 69.8 % 13.9 STEADY COMBINED STORAGE IN THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM AS OF NOVEMBER 13TH WAS AT 69.3 PERCENT CAPACITY WHICH WAS 0.3 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. CAPACITY IN THE INDIVIDUAL RESERVOIRS IS AS FOLLOWS... PERCENT CAPACITY TREND CAPACITY BILLION GAL CROTON SYSTEM 77.0 % 86.6 STEADY ROUNDOUT RESERVOIR 89.3 % 49.6 STEADY ASHOKAN RESERVOIR 75.9 % 122.9 STEADY SCHOHARIE RESERVOIR 79.0 % 17.6 STEADY CANNONSVILLE RESERVOIR 50.1 % 95.7 HIGHER PEPCATON RESERVOIR 64.0 % 140.2 HIGHER NEVERSINK RESERVOIR 66.8 % 34.9 STEADY THE COMBINED STORAGE IN THE UPPER DELAWARE RIVER BASIN AT THE NEVERSINK...PEPCATON AND CANNONSVILLE RESERVOIRS WAS 59.6% CAPACITY (161.1 BILLION GALLONS). THIS IS 6.5 BILLION GALLONS ABOVE NORMAL OR 4.2 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE SALT LINE FRONT ON THE DELAWARE RIVER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT RIVER MILE 68 WHICH IS 10 MILES SOUTH OF THE DELAWARE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE. NORMAL LOCATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS RIVER MILE 80. _____________________ STREAMFLOW __________________________ STREAMS MONITORED IN REAL TIME BY THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY WERE CURRENTLY (13TH) CLASSIFIED AS FOLLOWS... SOUTHEAST NEW YORK 25TH - 74TH PERCENTILE DELAWARE/CATSKILL WATERSHEDS 75TH - 89TH PERCENTILE NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY 25TH - 74TH PERCENTILE NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY 75TH - 89TH PERCENTILE CENTRAL NEW JERSEY > 89TH PERCENTILE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT > 89TH PERCENTILE CENTRAL CONNECTICUT 75TH - 89TH PERCENTILE ____________________ PALMER DROUGHT INDEX ___________________ THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT INDEX (NOV 9TH) INDICATES THE FOLLOWING... REGION INDEX (CONDITION) TREND CONNECTICUT -1.9 TO +1.9 NEAR NORMAL WETTER LWR HUDSON VALLEY -1.9 TO +1.9 NEAR NORMAL WETTER LONG ISLAND +2.0 TO +2.9 UNUSUAL MOIST MUCH WETTER NEW YORK CITY -1.9 TO +1.9 NEAR NORMAL WETTER NORTHERN NJ -1.9 TO +1.9 NEAR NORMAL WETTER SOUTHERN NJ -1.9 TO +1.9 NEAR NORMAL WETTER THE LATEST CROP MOISTURE INDEX, WHICH IS A SHORT TERM INDICATOR OF RECENT RAINFALL AND SURFACE SOIL CONDITIONS, REFLECTS A SHIFT TO ABNORMALLY MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE HSA INCLUDING LONG ISLAND, NEW YORK CITY, ALL OF NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. IN FACT ONLY CONNECTICUT REMAINED IN THE SLIGHTLY DRY/FAVORABLY MOIST RANGE. ___________ TEMPERATURE & PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ___________ THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE AS FOLLOWS... FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD FROM NOV 19 THROUGH NOV 23: TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD FROM NOV 21 THROUGH NOV 27: TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CLIMATE PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THERE IS A 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL. SEASONAL OUTLOOK: HEAVY AND WIDESPREAD RAINS DURING OCTOBER HAVE LED TO A MAJOR DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE EAST. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK CALLS FOR CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN THE COMING MONTHS. LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS CONTINUE DESPITE THE RECENT RAINS AND, AS A RESULT, SOME WELLS AND INDIVIDUAL RESERVOIRS MAY REMAIN AT LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE LEVELS INTO WINTER. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, THE MILD, DRY PATTERN THAT TOOK HOLD A YEAR AGO DOES NOT SEEM TO BE REPEATING. ONGOING MODERATE EL NINO CONDITIONS LEND CONFIDENCE FOR THE GREATEST IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS YOU MOVE FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION, WHERE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER THROUGHT JANUARY CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. _____________ DROUGHT CONSERVATION DEFINITIONS _________________ A DROUGHT WATCH IS USED TO ALERT GOVERNMENT AGENCIES...PUBLIC WATER SUPPLIERS...WATER USERS AND THE PUBLIC REGARDING THE ONSET OF CONDITIONS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE DROUGHT RELATED PROBLEMS. A DROUGHT WATCH CALLS FOR A VOLUNTARY 5 PERCENT REDUCTION OF NON-ESSENTIAL WATER USE. A DROUGHT WARNING IS USED TO PREPARE FOR A COORDINATED RESPONSE TO IMMINENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES...RELIEVE STRESSED RESOURCES...AND IF POSSIBLE FORESTALL THE NEED TO IMPOSE MANDATORY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS. A DROUGHT WARNING CALLS FOR A VOLUNTARY 10 TO 15 PERCENT REDUCTION IN WATER CONSUMPTION. A DROUGHT EMERGENCY IS THE MOST SEVERE STAGE OF THE THREE DROUGHT DECLARATIONS AND IMPOSES MANDATORY WATER RESTRICTIONS ON NON-ESSENTIAL WATER USE AND CAN ONLY BE DECLARED BY THE GOVERNOR. DROUGHT DECLARATIONS ARE BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS INCLUDING: 1. PRECIPITATION 2. RESERVOIR STORAGE LEVELS 3. STREAMFLOW LEVELS 4. GROUNDWATER ELEVATIONS 5. SOIL MOISTURE (PALMER DROUGHT INDEX) _______ CONSERVATION TIPS & HELPFUL INTERNET LINKS ________ CONSERVING WATER IS A GOOD PRACTICE YEAR ROUND...NOT JUST DURING TIMES OF DROUGHT. SOME WATER CONSERVING TIPS: USE A BROOM INSTEAD OF A HOSE TO CLEAN DRIVEWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. FIX LEAKING PIPES...HOSES AND FAUCETS. REPORT LEAKY FIRE HYDRANTS. TAKE SHORTER SHOWERS AND DON'T LET THE WATER RUN CONTINUOUSLY WHEN WASHING DISHES...SHAVING...OR BRUSHING TEETH. **** A COMPREHENSIVE DROUGHT GUIDANCE PAGE IS AVAILABLE ON OUR HOMEPAGE AT WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/OKX **** DROUGHT ASSESSMENT AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOMEPAGE WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV DETAILED STREAM LEVEL AND GROUNDWATER LEVEL DATA IS AVAILABLE AT THE USGS (UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY) HOMEPAGE WWW.USGS.GOV THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 27TH. NWS BROOKHAVEN LONG ISLAND MCKILLOP