FXUS61 KOKX 082312
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
612 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY AND PASSES JUST EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE 
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN 
CONTROL. CLEAR SKIES...WITH A MOS BLEND FOLLOWED WITH REGARD TO 
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST RESULTING IN DEEP W/SW FLOW. HEIGHTS 
RISE AS WAA BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY. THEREAFTER...NORTHERN AND 
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS IMPACT THE REGION.

IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT A WARM DAY MONDAY IN SPITE OF SUBSIDENCE 
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING. MODEL FCST PROFILES SUPPORT MOS 
NUMBERS...WHICH ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

WARMER NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT ON TAP IN RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES TO 
OUR EAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES COMMENCE TUE ONWARD TO MUDDY THE OVERALL 
PICTURE. HOWEVER OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO BE AN EXTREME 
OUTLIER...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD NAM/UKMET/EC SOLUTIONS THIS TIME 
FRAME...CLOSER TO TPC/HPC HANDLING OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. OP GFS AN 
OUTLIER AMONG MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS UPPER LEVEL PHASING OCCURS 
WITH SOUTHERN/NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHS. IN FACT...EVENTUAL POSITION 
OF SFC LOW FURTHER NORTH THIS RUN. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WHICH STILL 
LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON EXACT DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE 
WITH CHANCE POPS WITH MOISTURE STARVED FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH 
OBVIOUSLY ASSUMES LITTLE TO NO PHASING AS MENTIONED. WOULD EXPECT AT 
LEAST SOME MOISTURE GETS PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH TO WARRANT CHANCE 
POPS...EVEN THOUGH NAM REMAINS DRY.

WILL CUT POPS OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT PASSES EAST AND 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST.

TEMPS MILD AGAIN ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A TAD COOLER THAN MONDAY IN 
WEAK CAA. TEMPS FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY IN NORTH FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS 
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH THE REMNANTS OF IDA. THE 00Z/08 
AND 12Z/08 ECMWF NOW HAS A LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...NEAR 
JACKSONVILLE BY 12/12Z...MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/CMC...BUT 
MORE IN LINE WITH THE UKMET/NAM.

TPC'S DAY 5 OFFICIAL FORECAST LOOKS MOST LIKE THE EC/NAM/UKMET...AND 
HAVE FOLLOWED THIS SOLN CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME. THE EC THEN KEEPS 
THE LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE FL COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE 
GETTING SWEPT UP IN THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION. SINCE THE EC WAS MUCH CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL TPC 
FORECAST AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM...HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW IT 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE 
FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON MON.
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS NOT ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THU...
MON-TUE...VFR.
TUE NIGHT...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH COLD FROPA.
WED-THU...CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO WED EVENING VIA SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT INITIALLY...THEN FROM POSSIBLE OFFSHORE LOW.
INCREASING N-NE WINDS AT NYC/COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY 
AT LEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. IF NAM/EC/UKMET ARE CLOSER 
TO EVENTUAL SOLUTION...BORDERLINE SCA WINDS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD 
FRONT AND OUT AHEAD OF THE BUILDING HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...WAVE WATCH III OUTPUT SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE SHORT 
TERM. THEREAFTER WILL FOLLOW WIND/WAVE CLIMO TUE NIGHT AND WED AS 
WAVE WATCH III IS DISCOUNTED ALTOGETHER. THE EXACT DETAILS ON HOW
POST TROPICAL LOW TRACKS STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN...BUT CONSENSUS 
SEEMS TO POINT TO A NON GFS SCENARIO...WITH LOW PRESSURE SLOWER AND 
FURTHER SOUTH. STAY TUNED.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THU...BUT WITH LARGE MODEL 
DIFFERENCES AND A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP IT 
OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW. SCA'S MORE LIKELY WED NIGHT THROUGH THU 
NIGHT...WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. SCA CONDS COULD 
CONTINUE FURTHER...BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF IDA'S 
REMNANTS. STAY TUNED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW CHANCE FOR 
SIGNIFICANT QPF TUE NIGHT INTO WED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE 
GETS SWEPT NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$