FXUS61 KOKX 040612

AFDOKX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

212 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009



.SYNOPSIS...

TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH

PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL

PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER

TROUGH FOR MONDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN

THE NEW WEEK.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL 

CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG 

LATE...MAINLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM NYC THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY...BUT 

INCREASING WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK MAY WORK TO INHIBIT THIS 

ESPECIALLY LATE. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER/MID 60S. 



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...

SFC HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE

DAY. YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN

PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS

AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP. THIS IS

IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES POPS GENERALLY

LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.



SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY.



THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP

OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF NYC/LONG

ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT

SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP. IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER

NORTH...THEN MAYBE SOME SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON SUN WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT.



ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MON. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE

POPS IN THE AFTERNOON.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER-

END POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN RIGHT

NOW LOOK LIKE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.

DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH

TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING

ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.



&&



.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR. INCREASING NW ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FOG FORMATION...BUT 

THOSE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH LIGHTER SFC WINDS COULD PRODUCE SOME 

LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING (ABOUT 

12Z) AT AREA TERMINALS OTHER THAN KJFK/KLGA/KEWR...TOO MARGINAL A 

SITUATION TO INCLUDE IN TAF. 



WITH NW FLOW GUSTING TO 20-25 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT 

EXPECT A TRUE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE...THOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT 

WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE W IN THE 

AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KGON WHICH WILL LIE TO THE EAST OF A 

DEVELOPING LEE SFC TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE 

MOVING ACROSS. 



OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

LOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ON MON...THEN A 

SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE TUE-WED...VIA DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING 

CONVECTION...AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH 

APPROACH. 



&&



.MARINE...

LOW PRES DEPARTS TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH

THE WATERS ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO 

PRODUCE OCCASIONAL 20-25 KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY JUST 

DOWNWIND FROM THE IMMEDIATE NYC METRO AREA AND ALSO ON THE EASTERN 

OCEAN WATERS...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS 

INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 

FEW SETS TO REACH 5 FT IN A LONGER PERIOD SWELL. 



WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF 

THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN 

THE REGION.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FLOODING. 



&&



.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.

NY...NONE.

NJ...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...MPS

NEAR TERM...BS

SHORT TERM...BS

LONG TERM...JC

AVIATION...GOODMAN

MARINE...JC/MPS

HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN