SKYWARN NEWSLETTER
National Weather Service,NOAA
Pittsburgh, PA
Spring-Summer 2005
SORRY FOR THE CANCELLATION
Unfortunately, I had to cancel all SKYWARN classes this spring because of a health issue. However, we may have a class or two this fall. Certainly, we will be back in full swing by next SKYWARN season. In fact, classes may start a little earlier next winter because I suspect there will be a large demand. As always, it's best to monitor our website (www.erh.noaa.gov/er/pbz) for any scheduled classes. Also note, since we had to cancel classes, this year won't count against our 5-year re-certification requirement.
KEEP THOSE SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS COMING
Reports of severe weather are critical to our warning operations. These reports provide verification for our warnings, give credence to our warnings and statements, and help provide better and more accurate warnings to all who live downstream. In short, they save lives and protect property. Please feel free to call in severe weather reports on our toll free number, or if you are a HAM, get in touch with us over amateur radio. We love to hear from you and we really need the information. If you observe any of the criteria mentioned in the SKYWARN class (also mentioned below), please let us know. Thanks to all of you who continue to pass on your severe weather observations. Keep up the great work!
The National Hurricane Center (NHC), one of several centers within the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP), has released its 2005 Hurricane Season Outlook. According to the outlook, which is prepared by experts in the tropical weather field, a seventy-percent (70%) chance exists for an above-normal hurricane season.Twelve to fifteen (12-15) tropical storms are predicted, with seven to nine (7-9) predicted to become hurricanes. Of those, three to five (3-5) are expected to become major hurricanes (>Category 3). The outlook reflects an expected continuation of warmer sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, as well as ENSO-related conditions.The ENSO is expected to be neutral during the peak months of the hurricane season.A neutral ENSO means that there is no El Nino or La Nina. Last year there were 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 hurricanes equaled or exceeded category 3 in strength.In a normal hurricane season, we see about 9 named storms, about 5 or 6 hurricanes and about 2 that equal or exceed category 3 in strength. During the last ten years, we've seen above normal tropical activity in all but two years. What does this mean for our neck of the woods? The statistics actually work for us and against us. Since there will be more tropical systems, we would statistically stand more of a chance of seeing at least some remnants. However after last September with back-to-back record rainfall events in 9 days, the chances of repeating the same this year are slim. Even though we are getting better at forecasting above or below average tropical activity, we still do not know how many will make landfall! For more information regarding the 2005 Outlook, visit the National Hurricane Center Web Site at (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov). For more information regarding hurricane preparedness, visit the Federal Emergency Management Agency Web Site at (http://www.fema.gov).
E-SPOTTER MAY BE COMING TO NWS PITTSBURGH SKYWARN
Many of you have asked about reporting via the net. E-Spotter is a system to facilitate the submission of spotter reports online. We hope to experiment with the software this summer. We can not have it fully operational until next season because spotters will have to register to use it. Once we get the bugs out, we'll make the system part of the SKYWARN presentation so we can "spread the word". You will be able to enter your observation online. The output will automatically display and alert in our AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) computers. A menu will be displayed where you can choose the severe weather phenomena to report. It will only be available to trained SKYWARN observers and emergency management. This could prove to be a very timely and efficient means to get observations to us. Stay tuned for more information on E-Spotter.
Amateur Radio Update: Communications Enhancement Project
Last year members of the National Weather Service Pittsburgh's Amateur Radio SKYWARN program began to implement a project that would enhance radio communications across the County Warning Area (CWA). While there is much work ahead, we are proud to announce that more effective communications have been established in many previously difficult areas.Through the use of linked radio network relays, where networks of radio operators relay reports and severe weather information to nearby counties, we are able to reach more people and provide better reports to the National Weather Service.Unfortunately, the project's main coordinator, Mark Schallenberger, had to suspend his work. However, we expect to continue the enhancement project over the next few SKYWARN seasons. Some possible additions to the project include the use of 6-meter radio communications, EchoLink, APRS, and HF radio communications.
All Thunderstorms Are Deadly
While it is true that only a small percentage of thunderstorms become severe, all thunderstorms produce lightning.Lightning remains the number 2 direct weather related killer in the
Wind Damage
One of the most significant threats with thunderstorms is wind damage.Wind damage can come in two forms: tornadic and straight-line.The difference is not always obvious and may create confusion to spotters. Damage caused by tornadoes typically has a high damage gradient. Whereas, with downbursts, the damage gradient is usually smaller. The debris pattern associated with a tornado is typically narrow and convergent.However, with a downburst, it is often broad and divergent. With a tornado you may see swirls or mud "splatters" on walls as well as projectile damage (i.e., sticks, stones, bricks thrown into structures) on several different sides of the structure. With straight-line wind damage (i.e., damage caused by downbursts), it is possible to have projectile damage along with mud "splatters", however, it is typically limited to one side of the structure. Also, remember that many trees can exhibit a twisted damage pattern even in downburst damage. This does not necessarily mean that it was a tornado. Many trees can appear twisted because of a weaker section of their structure or an uneven leaf canopy which causes uneven wind load and subsequent twisting. Downbursts can produce twisted trees.
STAY CONNECTED!
If you're not already a member, consider subscribing to the Yahoo! Group Skywarn Pittsburgh.It's a great way for skywarners in the Pittsburgh CWA to stay connected, share information, discuss the weather, share files, and more!
Special thanks to Alan Stumpf for creating the group.To join, just visit
http://www.yahoogroups.com/groups/skywarn_pittsburgh.
SOME SEVERE WEATHER FACTS
The County Warning Area (CWA) of the NWS in Pittsburgh consists of 36 counties.
In Pennsylvania (15): Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Clarion, Fayette, Forest, Greene, Indiana, Jefferson, Lawrence, Mercer, Venango, Washington, Westmoreland
In Ohio (11): Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Coshocton, Guernsey, Harrison, Jefferson, Monroe, Muskingum, Noble, Tuscarawas
In West Virginia (9): Brooke, Hancock, Marion, Marshall, Monongalia, Ohio, Preston, Tucker, Wetzel
In Maryland (1): Garrett
In the last 10 years (May 1996 through May 2005) our CWA has experienced about 45 tornadoes. There were 18 F0s, 16 F1s, and 12 F2s. That averages out to be about 4 to 5 tornadoes per year. However, in 1999, there were no tornadoes confirmed. Meanwhile, in 1998, there were about 17. During this same time period the area has experienced nearly 750 reports of large hail (equal to or greater than .75 of an inch). That's about 75 reports a year. The largest hail reported over the last 10 years has been in Columbiana County (3 inches in diameter).
Did you know? According to our records the largest hail reported in our CWA since 1950 occurred in Beaver County, PA on July 26th, 1956 - 4.5 inches in diameter!!!!!!!
LIGHNTING AWARENESS WEEK JUNE 19-25, 2005
Lightning normally causes more fatalities each year than Hurricanes and Tornadoes combined. Be prepared and know what to do to protect yourself and your family. Check out our NOAA web site: (www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov).
REMEMBER THE THINGS WE WOULD LIKE YOU TO REPORT
Try to report as soon as possible after observing the event and, remember to be careful!
SNOWFALL - After 2 inches of new snow, and then at 4 inches, 6 inches, and every 3 inches thereafter (e.g., 2, 4, 6, 9, 12, etc.)
FREEZING RAIN - As soon as you observe the occurrence of freezing rain or freezing drizzle, especially if it starts to collect on objects. Call again if the glaze/ice accumulation exceeds 1/4 inch
THUNDER SNOW - Location and time of occurrence
WIND SPEEDS - Report wind speeds greater than 40 mph
RAINFALL - Report any rainfall in excess of 3/4 inch in an hour
FUNNEL CLOUD - A "rotating" appendage descending from the base of a cumulonimbus cloud, but not touching the ground. If possible, always look at the area beneath the funnel cloud for flying debris. If flying debris is observed, it is a tornado.
TORNADO - Violently rotating column of air descending from a cumulonimbus cloud and touching the ground. Look for flying debris. If possible, report any injuries or fatalities
HAIL - Report any size hail. Specify the diameter based on the hail scale (coins)
FLOODING - Report any flooding you observe, including basement, road, stream, creek, and ice jam flooding. Report the name of the stream/creek, road number/name (if applicable) and depth
DAMAGE - Report all storm-related damage (large branches, fallen trees, structural damage, flood damage, etc.) Even if it is several days after the event.
A NEW KID ON THE BLOCK
Please welcome Rodney Smith (Lead Forecaster) to NWS Pittsburgh. Rodney has been involved in SKYWARN with several NWS offices in his career. You'll be seeing Rodney at some of the SKYWARN classes. Rodney brings a great deal of experience and enthusiasm to our SKYWARN program.
AMATEUR RADIO: THANK YOU!
The National Weather Service would like to thank all operators who assisted in radio operations at the National Weather Service Pittsburgh.We could not do it without you!!! A special thanks to all of the radio operators who "staffed" the station during the 2004 severe weather season: (Alan KB3DHC), (Mark N3PBQ), (Gorman N3YQY), (Jim N3KJJ), (Dave WA3YEA), (Mike WA3PYU), (Rick AE3C), (Jeff N3YEA), and (Josh KB3GIO). Hope we didn't forget anyone, if so, thank you!
A SPECIAL THANKS
I'd like to extend a special thanks to Josh Gelman (KB3GIO) for contributing to this newsletter and routinely helping us out in severe weather. Also, an additional special thanks to Alan Stumpf for representing the NWS at the Breezeshooters hamfest in Butler. Alan did a great job! Thanks much, Alan and Josh!
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Rich Kane
Rodney Smith
Cynthia Powell
Josh Gelman