SUMMER ANALOGS FOR 2007
...CLIMATOLOGY...

WE HAD A RARE COMBINATION OF AN UNSEASONABLY COOL APRIL AND UNSEASONABLY WARM MAY THIS SPRING IN PHILADELPHIA. SINCE 1872, THIS COMBINATION HAS OCCURRED ONLY THIRTEEN TIMES AND NOT SINCE 1982. BY DEFINTION UNSEASONABLY COOL/NORMAL/ UNSEASONABLY WARM MONTHS ARE DIVIDED INTO THIRDS. THE FOLLOWING ARE TEMPERATURES THAT OCCURRED IN PHILADELPHIA DURING THE ENSUING SUMMERS. ONLY NINE OF THE THIRTEEN YEARS ARE LISTED BELOW BECAUSE THE FOUR OTHER SUMMERS TRENDED TOWARD OR WERE ALREADY IN EL NINO. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE MAIN ENSO REGION KNOWN AS NINO3.4 IN THE EASTERN EASTERN PACIFIC TO HAVE LA NINA CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS UPCOMING SUMMER.
YEAR       JUNE AVG   JULY AVG  AUGUST AVG  SUMMER AVG  SUMMER PCPN 
1887          71.6       80.6       74.0        75.4       16.26               
1904          70.8       74.8       73.4        73.0       11.13
1914          72.0       74.0       76.2        74.1       13.76
1936          71.8       77.3       76.0        75.0        9.86
1937          72.6       77.1       77.2        75.6        8.77        
1939          73.2       76.2       77.8        75.7       13.54
1944          72.2       78.4       75.4        75.3        7.06
1964          72.4       76.6       72.2        73.7        4.53
1975          72.2       76.6       77.1        75.3       16.10
 
AVG           72.1       76.8       75.4        74.8       11.22       
1971-2000 NML 72.3       77.6       76.3        75.4       11.50


ON A SEPARATE NOTE A CONDITIONAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BASED ON THE ENSO STATE, WHEN THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON OCCURS AND THE MEAN APRIL MINMIMUM TEMPERATURE CAN BE FOUND AT OUR WEB SITE AT: WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/PHI/REPORTS/ONIHEATWEB2007V1.PDF. ITS ALL LOWER CASED LETTERS EXCEPT FOR THE LETTERS ONIH IN ONIHEATWEB...

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE SUMMER IS FOR A GREATER CHANCE OF IT BEING WARMER THAN COOLER THAN NORMAL.

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