FGUS72 KRAH 311306
ESFRAH
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088>089-011800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
800 AM EST MAR 31 2006

     ...DROUGHT/WATER RESOURCE STATEMENT...

...THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO THE RALEIGH HYDROLOGIC SERVICE 
AREA WHICH IS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

      ...WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL NC...

DRIER THAN NORMAL JANUARY, FEBRUARY, AND MARCH 2006 CAUSED 
THE DROUGHT TO INTENSIFY. ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR ISSUE ON MARCH 30TH...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT COVERS
MOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT REGIONS... 
OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE ABNORMALLY DRY. 
TO VIEW THE SCOPE AND SEVERITY OF THE DROUGHT...LOG ON TO 
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ CLICK ON DROUGHT MONITOR. THE 
SITE IS UPDATED EVERY THURSDAY MORNING.

SHOWN BELOW ARE MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA RECORDED AT THE 
RALEIGH-DURHAM AND THE PIEDMONT-TRIAD INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORTS FOR THE LAST SIX MONTHS. ALSO SHOWN ARE RECENT 
RESERVOIR WATER ELEVATIONS AND THEIR DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL
POOLS AND THE OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FOR
THE COMING MONTHS. 

A.  PAST RAINFALL
           RALEIGH-DURHAM AP         PIEDMONT-TRIAD AP
           ACTUAL  NORMAL  DEPART    ACTUAL  NORMAL  DEPART

OCT. 2005  2.06    3.18   -1.12     2.92    3.27    -0.35    
NOV. 2005  3.72    2.97    +0.75     3.63    2.96    +0.67
DEC. 2005  4.24    3.04    +1.20     4.08    3.06    +1.02
JAN. 2006  2.07    4.02    -1.95     2.38    3.54    -1.16
FEB. 2006  1.65    3.47    -1.82     1.54    3.10    -1.56 
MAR. 2006  1.25    4.03    -2.78     0.95    3.85    -2.90
   
    TOTAL 14.99   20.71   -5.72    15.50   19.78    -4.28   

DEPARTURE         =        -27.6 %                   -21.6 % 
FROM NORMAL

B. RESERVOIRS

DAM        03/30 WATER ELEV.   NORMAL          DEPARTURE
                       
NEUSE FALLS    250.70 FT       251.5 FT         -0.80 FT      
JORDAN         216.95       216.0 FT        +0.95

ALTHOUGH RESERVOIR LEVELS ABOVE ARE NEAR NORMAL AT THIS 
TIME, INFLOWS ARE ALARMINGLY MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL. FOR EXAMPLE...
ACCORDING TO THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS, NORMAL APRIL INFLOW TO THE
NEUSE FALLS LAKE IS 1300 CFS - CURRENT INFLOW IS ONLY 119 CFS,
WHICH IS AN ALL TIME RECORD LOW OVER THE PAST 76 YEARS. AT B. 
EVERETT JORDAN LAKE, THE NORMAL APRIL INFLOW IS 2500 CFS; THE
CURRENT INFLOW IS ONLY 430 CFS, WHICH IS ALSO AN ALL TIME LOW 
OVER THE PAST 76 YEARS.     

C. STREAM DISCHARGES

ACCORDING THE THE U. S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, STREAM FLOWS IN 
THE PIEDMONT REGIONS HAVE DROPPED TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL 
OVER THE PAST MONTH; CURRENT LEVELS ARE EXPERIENCED EVERY 25 
TO 50 YEARS. HERE ARE SOME EXAMPLES OF STREAM DISCHARGES 
COMPARED TO LONG TERM MEDIANS.

                          3/30 DISCHARGE  LONG TERM MEDIAN
TAR TIVER AT ROCKY MOUNT     253 CFS      1235 CFS
FLAT RIVER AT BAHAMA          26           113
HAW RIVER AT BYNUM           353          1310  
BLACK RIVER AT TOMAHAWK      336          1190  


D. PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK 

LACK OF LARGE RAINFALL PRODUCING SYSTEMS AND MOISTURE 
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE CONTINUED DRIER THAN NORMAL  
CONDITIONS OVER OUR AREA DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS. IN THAT TIME 
THE DROUGHT WILL LIKELY SPREAD FURTHER.

SO THAT WATER SUPPLIES LAST LONGER...EVERYONE IS URGED TO
CONSERVE.  

AFL