WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...NUMBER 2 ...FLOOD POTENTIAL VARIES FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE PIEDMONT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE FAR WEST... THIS IS THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF ANNUAL WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH FLOODING) ACROSS THE BLACKSBURG HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). THIS INCLUDES ALL OR PARTS OF THE JAMES ...ROANOKE...UPPER YADKIN...GREENBRIER...NEW...CLINCH AND HOLSTON RIVER BASINS IN WESTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. THESE STATEMENTS WILL PROVIDE INFORMATION ON FLOOD THREAT CONDITIONS SUCH AS RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER AND ITS WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...STREAMFLOW...FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND OTHERS FACTORS. THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE PERIOD THROUGH FEBRUARY 1 2007. FOR THE BLACKSBURG HSA THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD REMAINS SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. THIS IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE TWO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS JANUARY 1 AND JANUARY 7-8 THAT PRODUCED HIGH STREAMFLOWS AND FLOODING IN THE DAN AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER BASIN. FACTORS MITIGATING AGAINST FLOODING ARE THE TOTAL LACK OF SNOW COVER AND FROZEN SOIL ACROSS THE REGION. IN THIS PART OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW AVERAGE. CURRENT FLOODING - NONE. RECENT PRECIPITATION - JANUARY TO DATE HAS BEEN FAIRLY WET ACROSS THE AREA AS A NEW YEARS DAY STORM BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF THE DAN RIVER BASIN AND ANOTHER EVENT PRODUCED MODERATE RAINS ACROSS THE AREA JANUARY 7-8. THE LAST TEN DAYS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY DRY HOWEVER AND A MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURE REGIME HAS TAKEN HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. DECEMBER PRECIPITATION WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL IN THE HSA WITH A PRELIMINARY AVERAGE OF 2.31 INCHES AT 78 NWS COOPERATIVE STATIONS. THIS WAS ONLY 74 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL DECEMBER PRECIPITATION OF 3.12 INCHES. PRECIPITATION DURING THE AUTUMN MONTHS OF SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER WAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TOTALING 15.23 INCHES...145 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL MEAN OF 10.51 INCHES. SNOW COVER - THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO SNOW COVER AT PRESENT IN THE BLACKSBURG HSA EXCEPT FOR SOME VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. RIVER ICE - NONE. STREAMFLOW - MOST MAJOR RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES ARE RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS AT THIS TIME AND ARE DECLINING SLOWLY TOWARD BASEFLOWS. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS CURRENT (JANUARY 19) STREAMFLOWS VERSUS MEDIAN FLOWS FOR THIS DATE OVER THE PERIOD OF RECORD AT SELECTED LONG-TERM RIVER LOCATIONS IN THE BLACKSBURG HSA. THESE DATA ARE PROVIDED COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS). RIVER/LOCATION FLOW MEDIAN PERCENT DRAINAGE YRS OF (CFS) FLOW AREA RECORD OF MED. AREA(MI2) RECORD JAMES R. AT BUCHANAN VA 1880 1580 119 2075 95 JAMES R. AT BENT CREEK VA 3830 3170 121 3683 80 ROANOKE R. AT ROANOKE VA 252 276 91 395 105 DAN R. AT PACES VA 3100 2250 138 2550 55 NEW RIVER AT GALAX VA 1750 1700 103 1141 75 NEW RIVER AT GLEN LYN VA 5010 4590 109 3678 77 GREENBRIER R. ALDERSON WV 2810 1840 153 1364 110 YADKIN R. AT WILKESBORO NC 141 118 119 504 90 YADKIN R. AT ELKIN NC 932 1110 84 869 42 NF HOLSTON R. NR SALTVILLE VA 238 279 85 222 86 RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. SOIL MOISTURE - THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) SOIL MOISTURE MODEL INDICATES THAT SOIL MOISTURE IN THE TOP FIVE FEET OF SOIL REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE EAST. FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - CURRENT FORECASTS ARE FOR A MODERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY (JAN 21)INTO MONDAY (JAN 22) WHICH COULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT COULD PRODUCE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. FOR THE 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK PERIODS...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. REPEATING THE CURRENT FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE BLACKSBURG HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF WINTER/SPRING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY 1. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.