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FNUS51 KRNK 051942
FWFRNK

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SW VA...SE WV AND NW NC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN A PROMINENT FEATURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL HEAD SOUTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO SWING AROUND AND COME FROM A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ENOUGH MOISTURE NOW EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. THE SAME SCENARIO WILL TAKE
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND 
NORTH. 

WILL BE MONITORING THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
FOR POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM A TROPICAL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED 
TO FORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND DRIFT NORTH 
TOWARD THE CAROLINA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS COVERING MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED 
STATES...STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK. AS SUCH...ANY IMPACT TO
OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED PER THE WEAK STEERING FLOW.
AT THE VERY LEAST...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ASIDE FROM THE SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT AND WEAK TRANSPORT
WINDS...IT MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE TO FIND BURN WINDOWS TO
CONDUCT SMALLER PRESCRIBED BURNS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING 
WEEKEND.

THAT SAID...GREEN-UP IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE CANOPY 
CLOSING QUICKLY FOR ELEVATIONS UNDER 3000 FEET. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ABOVE 3KFT IS JUST BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS
OF THE WARM WEATHER AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE.  THE PERSISTENT
WARMTH WHICH IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL LIKELY EXPEDITE THE GREEN-UP PROCESS AT THESE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BRINGING THE SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON TO A CLOSE.  

&&

NCZ004-060915-
STOKES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DANBURY
342 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

                      TONIGHT      WED          WED NIGHT    THU          

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY        
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         TSTMS        TSTMS        NONE         
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            20           20           0            
MIN/MAX TEMP          56           84           58           80           
MAX/MIN RH %          92           41           95           47           
WND20FT2MIN/EARLY(MPH)LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
WND20FT2MIN/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR      SE  3        LGT/VAR      E  4         
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.00         
PRECIP DURATION                    0            0                         
PRECIP BEGIN                       3 PM         CONTINUING                
PRECIP END                         CONTINUING   10 PM                     
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL)                 7570                      5450         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE  7                     E 12         
VENT RATE (MPH-FT)                 52990                     65400        
DISPERSION (EVENING)  VERY POOR                 VERY POOR                 
LAL                   2            2            2            2            
HAINES INDEX          4            4            3            3            
ADI EARLY             26 FAIR      6 VERY POOR  23 FAIR      29 FAIR      
ADI LATE              1 VERY POOR  33 FAIR      1 VERY POOR  48 GEN GOOD  
MAX LVORI EARLY       3            6            4            8            
MAX LVORI LATE        6            2            6            1            

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
MINIMUM RH 56 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. MINIMUM RH 55 PERCENT. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
MINIMUM RH 52 PERCENT. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
MINIMUM RH 52 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
MINIMUM RH 52 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION NEAR NORMAL.


 

Site specific forecasts for wildfires and prescribed burns may be obtained by contacting the National Weather Service in Blacksburg, VA at (540) 552-0084 or by submitting a Spot Request over the Internet.

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