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FNUS51 KRNK 050830
FWFRNK

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR SW VA...SE WV AND NW NC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
430 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN A PROMINENT FEATURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL HEAD SOUTH
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO SWING AROUND AND COME FROM A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

ENOUGH MOISTURE NOW EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO PROMOTE A DAILY THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD 
UPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING AND EARLY 
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THREAT FOR SHOWERS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING PART OF THE DAY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  

WILL BE MONITORING THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST
FOR POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM A TROPICAL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED 
TO FORM VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND DRIFT NORTH 
TOWARD THE CAROLINA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS COVERING MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED 
STATES...STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAK. AS SUCH...ANY IMPACT TO
OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED PER THE WEAK STEERING FLOW.
AT THE VERY LEAST...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FOR A DAILY THREAT OF SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ASIDE FROM THE SCATTERED SHOWER THREAT AND WEAK TRANSPORT
WINDS...IT MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE TO FIND BURN WINDOWS TO
CONDUCT SMALLER PRESCRIBED BURNS THROUGH THIS UPCOMING 
WEEKEND.

THAT SAID...GREEN-UP IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE CANOPY 
CLOSING QUICKLY FOR ELEVATIONS UNDER 3000 FEET. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ABOVE 3KFT IS JUST BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS
OF THE WARM WEATHER AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE.  THE PERSISTENT
WARMTH WHICH IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL LIKELY EXPEDITE THE GREEN-UP PROCESS AT THESE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BRINGING THE SPRING WILDFIRE SEASON TO A CLOSE.  

&&

VAZ045-052230-
CAMPBELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LYNCHBURG
430 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED          

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       PCLDY        PCLDY        
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         SHOWERS      
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            20           
MAX/MIN TEMP          84           57           83           
MIN/MAX RH %          36           92           45           
WND20FT2MIN/EARLY(MPH)LGT/VAR      S  4         LGT/VAR      
WND20FT2MIN/LATE(MPH) LGT/VAR      SW  4        LGT/VAR      
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.02         
PRECIP DURATION                                 0            
PRECIP BEGIN                                    3 PM         
PRECIP END                                      CONTINUING   
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL)    7600                      7000         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S  7                      SE  2        
VENT RATE (MPH-FT)    53200                     14000        
DISPERSION (EVENING)               POOR                      
LAL                   2            1            2            
HAINES INDEX          4            4            3            
ADI EARLY             7 POOR       27 FAIR      4 VERY POOR  
ADI LATE              35 FAIR      4 VERY POOR  16 GEN POOR  
MAX LVORI EARLY       5            3            6            
MAX LVORI LATE        2            5            2            

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. MINIMUM RH 55 PERCENT. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. MINIMUM RH 55 PERCENT. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS
AROUND 80. MINIMUM RH 54 PERCENT. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. MINIMUM RH 52 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. MINIMUM RH 53 PERCENT. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.


 

Site specific forecasts for wildfires and prescribed burns may be obtained by contacting the National Weather Service in Blacksburg, VA at (540) 552-0084 or by submitting a Spot Request over the Internet.

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