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"City, St"
  
000
FXUS62 KGSP 310207
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
907 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION AND LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE SHOULD 
RETURN LATER SUNDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... 
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. 
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF 
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 900 PM...THERE HAS BEEN SOME UPTICK IN WINDS AT 
KAVL/KTNB/KGEV...PROBABLY DUE TO SOME INCREASED CHANNELING FLOW UP 
THE VALLEYS. THE 00Z OHX AND GSO SNDGS SHOW THE DIFFERENCE IN THE 
HEIGHT OF THE INVERSION (GSO AROUND 825-800 MB AND OHX BELOW 850 
MB). HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PRES GRAD WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN...AND 
SO I THINK THE WIND ADV ENDING AT MIDNIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD. 
ALSO...THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS TRYING TO DEVELOP DUE TO GOOD SETUP 
FOR OROGRAPHIC/MTN WAVE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOKS 
SPARSE. SO I ONLY BUMPED UP SKY COVER A LITTLE...PROBABLY NOT EVEN 
ENUF TO GO FROM CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS IN 
GOOD SHAPE.

AS OF 630 PM...WINDS HAVE STEADILY WEAKENED EARLY THIS EVENING...AS 
PRES GRAD SLACKENS ATOP THE CWFA. ALSO...CLOUDS HAVE COMPLETELY 
CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...AS DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO 
VALLEY. SKY AND WIND GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS 
IN THE OBS/SAT AND GUIDANCE. THE WIND ADV STILL LOOKS GOOD...BUT MAY 
BE ABLE TO BE CANCELED EARLY IF THE CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

AS OF 230 PM EST FRIDAY...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
REGION BETWEEN A LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A 1035MB CP HIGH 
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY N/NW WINDS ACROSS 
MUCH OF OUR CWA TODAY. STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WILL 
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN NC MTNS THRU TONIGHT. HENCE...WILL 
CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR AVERY...MITCHELL AND YANCEY COUNTIES 
THROUGH MID-NIGHT. THE WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN TOWARDS THE LATE 
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES OVER THE AREA. ANY 
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TN LINE SHOULD TAPER OFF THRU THE 
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS APPRECIABLE LLVL DRYING CONTINUES. WITH 
STOUT CAA NWLY FLOW...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 10S/LOW20S 
ACROSS THE MTS/VALLEY ZONES...L20/M20S OVER THE NC PIEDMONT/EASTERN 
UPSTATE SC AND M20/U20S ELSEWHERE. 

TOMORROW...A RATHER FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST 
ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. 
THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND TEMPS SHOULD STAY 
3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
TOMORROW MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES 
TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON AS CONSIDERABLE MID/HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF 
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW PRESSURE 
WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE TOP DOWN 
SUNDAY AM...BUT FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT 
MEASURABLE PRECIP BEFORE MID MORNING. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 
MODELS...I WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY INTO THE LIKELY RANGE BY MID 
DAY...REACH CATE ACROSS THE MTNS BY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE POPS 
SHOULD ALLOW FREEZING MORNING TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE 
FREEZING BEFORE PRECIP ONSET. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD 
RANGE FROM MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW 50S EAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS TIMED TO PASS ACROSS THE MID 
ATLANTIC STATES AROUND DAYBREAK. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA EARLY MONDAY. EAST 
OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MTNS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING GENERALLY RAINFALL. 
HOWEVER...STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN A FAST 
TRANSITION TO SNOW AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES 
ACROSS THE MTNS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE 
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE PRECIP WILL BECOME SUPPORTED BY MOIST AND COLD 
NW WINDS ALONG THE TN BORDER BY MID DAY MON. AREAS EAST...SHOULD 
EXPERIENCE STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH DECREASING MOISTURE. IT 
APPEARS THAT THE BEST OVERLAP OF MOISTURE...WINDS...AND SNOW 
SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT 
HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE 
LATER ARRIVE OF COLD AIR WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN STORM TOTAL 
SNOWFALL...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE 
PERIOD AS COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE. BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. 

AFTER TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS 
A PATTERN WHERE AN UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA OPENS UP AND 
MOVES TOWARD THE SERN CONUS IN THE SRN STREAM FLOW TOWARD MID-
WEEK...WHILE A SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NRN 
STREAM FLOW TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE SFC PATTERN 
DIFFERS GREATLY WITH THE GFS BRINGING A MILLER-A TYPE LOW TO THE FL 
PANHANDLE GULF COAST WED AND MOVING TO CAPE HATTERAS WED NITE... 
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO THE AREA. THE LOW MOVES 
NE AWAY FROM THE AREA THU...AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE 
NE THRU FRI. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE 
DEVELOPING CAD THEN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA FROM 
LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...HAS A GULF 
LOW. HOWEVER...IT IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...KEEPING ANY MOISTURE AND 
PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA. IT BRINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE 
AREA THU...WITH MAYBE SOME NW FLOW PRECIP...BUT MAINLY A MUCH COLDER 
AIR MASS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DOES HAVE PRECIP DURING THIS 
TIME...BUT IT IS LIMITED TO THE LOW CHC RANGE. THEREFORE...HAVE 
TAKEN THIS TRACK AND LIMITED POP TO LOW CHC FOR LATE WED AND WED 
NITE...WITH SLIGHT CHC ON THU. PRECIP IS LATE ENUF AND TEMPS ARE 
WARM ENUF FOR THE WED PRECIP TO BE MAINLY RAIN. TEMPS ARE COLD ENUF 
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP TO BE SNOW...BUT PRECIP ENDING WOULD 
LIMIT ANY SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WED 
AND THU...BUT BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NW WINDS THIS EVENING 
TO LESS THAN 5 KTS BY 06Z. THEN THIN CIRRUS WILL RETURN FROM THE 
WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM...WHILE LIGHT WINDS 
TURN OUT OF THE SW. NO OTHER ISSUES EXPECTED...WITH VERY DRY LLVL 
AIR STILL IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION ON THE WINDS IS KAVL...WHERE GUSTY 
NNW WINDS WILL LINGER THRU THE EVENING...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT. 
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NW AT KAVL THRU THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS. 
DRYING IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM. 
ANOTHER MOIST LOW PRES SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z 
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...ARK/JOH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK


National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office Greenville-Spartanburg
GSP International Airport
1549 GSP Drive
Greer, SC 29651
(864) 848-3859
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Page last modified: January 20, 2010

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