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"City, St"
  
000
FXUS62 KGSP 221903
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
303 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROF/CYCLONE CONTINUE TO 
EJECT EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  AT THE SURFACE...COLD 
FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH 
ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  IN 
RESPONSE...NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT 
INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION CONSEQUENT OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAS 
ALLOWED FOR MODEST WARMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST SITES 
HOVERING IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.  INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES 
AMONGST DEEP MIXED LAYER CONTINUES TO YIELD GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY 
WINDS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS RESIDING OVER THE HIGH 
TERRAIN...ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHCENTRAL UPSTATE DUE TO GAP 
WINDS THROUGH THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY.  THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE EVENING AS THE MIXED LAYER ERODES 
LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 5-10MPH RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  
HOWEVER...TERRAIN BLOCKAGE ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...AND 
ALSO IN AND AROUND THE LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY WILL LEAD TO DECREASED 
WINDS AND INCREASED FOG POTENTIAL.  NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG AS 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY DRY THAT FAR SOUTH...HOWEVER WOULD 
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THESE LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE VISB 
REDUCTIONS OF AROUND 4-5 MILES BY MORNING.  

OTHERWISE...QUIET/COOL NIGHT AHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO 
THE 30S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WHILE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HOLD IN 
THE LOWER 40S.  DESPITE THE COLD AND NEAR FREEZING MINS TONIGHT OVER 
THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS...NOT EXPECTING ANY FROST CONCERNS AS 
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEVELS UNSUPPORTIVE OF FROST FORMATION.  
WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AND 
SOUTHWEST NC COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WOULD SUPPORT 
FROST POTENTIAL...THUS WILL LIKELY ISSUE FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE 
ZONES.  ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IN STORE FOR THURSDAY AS DEEP 
LAYER RIDGING PREVAILS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR 
CLIMO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM WED...TYPICALLY BENIGN MID-AUTUMN WEATHER WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST...AND THE MEAN EASTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE DIVING OUT OF THE CORN BELT REGION THU
NITE/FRI. THE TROF MOVES EAST FRI NITE/SAT LEAVING NWLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT NW FLOW AND PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHUD RESULT IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NC MTNS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO
SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS. WILL SEE COOL NITES AND MILD DAYS WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL FOR THE MTN ZONES WHERE FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE STILL
BEING ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM WED...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...WITH THE EASTERN TROF BEING
REPLACED WITH A RIDGE THRU TUE. SWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WED AS
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND A TROF MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A DRY FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MON AND SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA TUE. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE TROF...WITH THE GFS WEAKER AND FASTER
AND THE ECMWF STRONGER AND SLOWER. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS
BRINGING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE MTNS LATE WED...AND THE ECMWF
BRINGING A STRONGER FRONT WITH GOOD SLY FLOW INTO THE WRN CWFA BY
THAT TIME. FOR NOW...HAVE LIMITED POP TO SLIGHT CHC FOR THE NC MTNS
AND NRN TIER...IN LINE WITH A MDL BLEND...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MILD TEMPS SUN SEE A BRIEF COOL DOWN MON...THEN SHOW A WARMING
SLOW WARMING TREND THRU THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES 
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIGS AT KAVL.  GUSTY DOWNSLOPE 
WINDS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE TAFS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS 
UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT TO THE EAST.  
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND INTRUDING 
SURFACE RIDGE HAVE COMBINED WITH DEEPENED MIXED LAYER TO PROMOTE 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL SITES.  GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AS MIXING 
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET WITH SUSTAINED FLOW IN THE 5-8KT RANGE 
LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY 
SUNNY/CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ASIDE FOR AT KAVL 
WHERE MORNING STRATUS IS POSSIBLE DUE TO INVERSION TRAPPED LOW LEVEL 
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WAS HANDLED WITH A TEMPO.  FLOW WILL 
GRADUALLY START TO VEER EAST OF NORTH OVER THE LATER PART OF THE TAF 
CYCLE WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 6-10KTS RANGE THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY 
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES.        

OUTLOOK...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE REGION...AS DEEP 
LAYER RIDGING SETTLES IN THRU THIS WEEKEND.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            10-16Z        16-22Z        22-04Z        04-10Z 
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     
KAVL       MED   65%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ063.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CDG





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Weather Forecast Office Greenville-Spartanburg
GSP International Airport
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Greer, SC 29651
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Page last modified: January 20, 2010

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