July 17, 2009 Conference Call Notes
Provided by: Steve Keighton, SOO - Blacksburg, VA (RNK)
Observational Data Resources and Field Project status: Baker and Doug working on NSF proposal for Microwave Radiometer Profiler, but even if funded would not be fielded in time for this upcoming season. Hope for wind profiler as well, but probably a couple of years down the road.
Both the RENCI MRRs are not likely to be moved from central NC due to the high priority placed on p-type issue and potentially significant impacts from these types of winter storms (also because they have yet to capture too many of them yet). The support for HMT-SE will probably also keep them there. May be able to get one for well under $50K, but any proposal done would not likely get one fielded in time for this upcoming season. There are some NSF "quick turn-around" funds potentially worth pursuing ("SGER" and/or "EGER"?). Any proposals made for something that could potentially be fielded by this season should frame it in an approaching El Nino framework, since this season could potentially have some significant events.
In the "doesn't hurt to ask" arena, Larry will contact the Clemson physics department about any potential observational equipment they might have available for lower atmosphere observations, and Steve will contact someone at Oak Ridge Labs he got acquainted with early this summer (and will ask David Hotz to check with his contacts there as well).
Finally, Doug still hopes to support a UNC-A team launching mobile soundings again, but there is some question whether the Loran wind retrieval system will be available through the whole season since it was not funded by the President.
High Res Ensemble Project and Local model updates: The spin-up of the High Resolution Mid-Atlantic Ensemble Experiment (HME) at RENCI under the leadership of Brian Etherton at RENCI continues. The 2D output fields from several WRF members are now successfully being sent to RENCI, with the rest hopefully before the end of the summer. RENCI has their varieties of the WRF running as well. Ensemble output fields (spaghetti, means, probabilities) are expected to be available in time for the winter season. There was some discussion of how best to display fields and utilize them for NWFS problems, and how this particular forecast issue provides a great opportunity to explore the best ways to utilize high res ensemble output in the forecast process, and also how to develop more public displays of model output. Some NSSL software was identified that could be used to display model soundings (which may be a better option initially then distributing many 3D fields). We'll need to stay in touch with Mike Evans (SOO NWS Binghamton) and the group working with the Great Lakes ensemble project, given their experiences, albeit with only about 6 members, as well as Chris Mello (ITO NWS Cleveland) who has developed a lot of scripts for display in AWIPS.
Doug and students at UNC-A are still looking at WRF runs from past years events and examining highly variable mesoscale behavior from event to event despite nearly identical synoptic regimes. Results are expected to be presented at the NWA Meeting this fall.
General future goals: Some discussion on web displays (including for the public), gridded verification of mesoscale model QPF for NWFS events (using BOIverify), and the verification system at RENCI. Also the idea of looking at doing more work on sub-categories of NWFS events (to build on what GSP did early on, as well as Baker, Chip, and David Hotz with snowfall in the Smokys), and building that into a forecast methodology.
BAMS article: Look for the July issue on-line and in the mail any time now, and hopefully this will bring some feedback and maybe even some interest from others who have resources?
Next call: Need to have a call in August to follow up on some of the things we said we'd do to pursue resources to support an ongoing field project. Friday Aug 14 is the first choice, but if that's bad for a lot of folks then we'll try Aug 7.