November 2, 2007 Conference Call Notes
Provided by: Steve Keighton, SOO - Blacksburg, VA (RNK)
BAMS article: The BAMS proposal has been given the green light by the editors, so it's time to plan the writing. During the call, Steve K circulated a BAMS checklist to everyone which includes word and page limits. We are going to try and keep it fairly short, hopefully well under these limits, and will try to utilize some good figures to do much of the talking. Steve K recently circulated the last draft outline, which we referred to on the call, and based on discussion he will send a revised version out later today, including initial writing assignments that we agreed upon. A small number of us will do most of the initial writing, but we will want to get as much input as possible from everyone, so each "section author" will be sharing their drafts with the entire group for feedback. We hope to finish much of the writing in December, but we decided on a mid January deadline for all the first draft sections, and then we'll pull it all together after that.
UNC General Admin proposal on Improving Snowfall forecasts in wrn NC: Baker, Sandra, and Doug Miller are co-authors on a proposal that would focus on observational data sets (i.e., MRR, CoCoRaHS, mobile soundings) as well as mesoscale modeling to help improve knowledge of local climatology, snow density, and terrain influences on forecasting snow in western NC. They will know if funding is approved for this study by mid November. If funded, this will cover costs of running the MRR and sfc equipment at Poga Mtn and provide real-time access. If not, it might be desirable to submit a COMET Partner's project addressing many of the same issues, which hopefully can be turned around very quickly so we can still collect data this winter.
Micro-Rain Radar article(s): Still a good possibility, but how soon these are pursued depends on proposals mentioned above. A few members of this group will contribute to these efforts. Sandra was not on the call so did not get her latest thoughts on this.
Local modeling updates: Steve Z at WFO LWX is looking for some input on some local WRF decisions, specifically forecast projection length (24 or 36 hrs) vs resolution (4 vs 3.5km?). You can email him your thoughts. WFO RNK will be setting up our cluster and initial WRF configuration next week. Not sure how soon we'll get output posted to the web. WFO GSP has begun running an initial NMM WRF, but are building a cluster and may be making some configuration changes. Nothing posted on the web yet.
Developing forecast methodologies: Ran out of time for this one, but WFO reps should be thinking about this and will be asked to share some thoughts on this eventually. Larry and Steve K may do some initial discussing of the best approach to share these ideas and brainstorm with the group. Some initial thoughts from the call agenda were: Should WFOs reps send a list of some bullets or short Power Pt slides with ideas and local practices that have been used so far? Should we start with Larry's CSTAR presentation from a couple of year's ago? Are we going to focus on decision tree type of methodology and/or get as specific as ideas for GFE tools? I'm thinking of forecast funnel approach: understanding climatology, recognizing synoptic settings, utilizing details and understanding biases of NCEP models, as well as how best to use local mesoscale model output, inputing model output and climatology info into GFE plus perhaps also using pre-defined edit areas in GFE (this starts getting pretty specific to WFO folks), including maybe snow ratio tools, and finally to using real time obs from satellite, to radar, to MRR, and sfc obs for recognizing the need for forecast updates and the enhanced short term forecast concept.
Next call scheduled for Friday Dec 7 @9am: Any progress or additional thoughts on BAMS article; status of Perry/Yuter/Miller proposal and/or COMET proposal; status of local modeling efforts; ideas for model section of web page; updates from Blair or review of any recent events???