December 7, 2007 Conference Call Notes
Provided by: Steve Keighton, SOO - Blacksburg, VA (RNK)
Update on Modeling Research from Blair:
See Power Pt presentation (2.29 MB file) included in link to these minutes. Reviewed some aspects of previous research modeling primarily 2 events. This included removing all surface fluxes and also removing only Great Lakes fluxes, and examining QPF differences. New work was consideration of the Froude number for determining potential for more flow over mountains and how removal of fluxes impacted it. Looks like removal of all fluxes makes a big difference (Froude number very low without it, and thus not condusive to flow over mtns), while only small reduction with no fluxes over Great Lakes. Perhaps most significant effect of removing fluxes over Lakes is where max's and mins occur with more banding. Overall, terrain still has most influence on precip/snow distribution pattern.
UNC General Admin proposal on Improving Snowfall forecasts in wrn NC:
Has just been announced that it has been accepted! Congrats Baker, Sandra, and Doug! Baker is working hard to get all the pieces in place, since the funding is for a 6 month period starting now. UNC-A with Doug and students will be doing up to 5 soundings per day during events at the Poga Mtn. Up to 40 more CoCoRAHs precip gages are being distributed. The MRR data at Poga Mtn will be maintained and high speed DSL connection put in to make available in real-time. Maybe some instruments at Beech Mtn as well. NC State Climatologist office will help put together web page with access to all appropriate data, including local model data. Very exciting opportunities here!
Local modeling updates:
LWX running WRF-NMM at 12km out to 48hrs with GFS boundary conditions; can add more BUFR sites if needed; domain has been extended farther north and west. Site "BKRF" is identical in location w/ Poga Mtn. BUFKIT files for the two LWX local WRF runs are at: NWS Baltimore/Washington BUFKIT page.
RNK is now running a local WRF-ARW @4km, which is a two way nest with larger outer domain at 12km, initialized with NAM12. This runs 4x per day for now, but plans to increase to 8 times per day in January. Hopefully in next couple of weeks we'll have a web page set up with gempak images and BUFKIT soundings, but so far only internal. More details on model configuration will be available on RNK web page when the images are being posted.
Briefly reviewed outline, writing assignments, and reminded all folks serving as main authors we're still shooting for a mid-January deadline. Essentially no discussion on this and no writing has begun just yet. I do hope that all folks involved in the NWFS discussion group can help review drafts of sections of the entire paper once put together.
Developing forecast methodologies:
Larry and Steve will get together on this at some point this winter and draft some ideas for others to provide input on.
Next call scheduled for Friday Jan 11 @9am