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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1219 UTC
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

...LA/TX...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...WITH BAND OF STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.  CLUSTER OF
SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER EAST TX. THESE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF CYCLONIC UPPER JET MAX OVER
THE MS VALLEY...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE UPPER TX GULF COAST BY MIDDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WESTWARD
FROM THIS ACTIVITY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX. HIGH
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
ENHANCE THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. THESE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO SOUTH TX TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. 
FINALLY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST NM
AND WEST TX IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS
IN THAT REGION.

...MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST STATES...

MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE FROM THE MS/TN VALLEY INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM CENTRAL VA ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE
ONLY MARGINAL WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. 
HOWEVER...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /500MB TEMPERATURES OF -18 TO
-20C/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE RAPID DESTABILIZATION WITH
A FEW HOURS OF HEATING...AND THE RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OFF THE
VA/CAROLINA COAST BY EARLY EVENING...ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM PRIMARY ACTIVITY...INTO PARTS OF GA/AL/FL THIS AFTERNOON IN
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

..HART.. 05/14/2006

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
        

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