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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1610 UTC
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD
   ACROSS THE GULF STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE UPPER COLD LOW MOVES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY THRU TONIGHT
   AS A STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX NOW ACROSS TN VALLEY CONTINUES
   ROTATING EWD TO ACROSS CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING. SLOWLY DEVELOPING
   SURFACE LOW FAR WRN VA WILL MOVE EWD VICINITY VA/NC BORDER THIS
   AFTERNOON IN CONCERT WITH THE PRONOUNCED EXIT REGION OF THE STRONG
   MID LEVEL JET.
   
   COLD FRONT TRAILS WSWWD ACROSS NRN GA TO SRN AR AND THEN INTO FAR
   SWRN TX.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
   STATES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WIND MAX.  AS THE
   SURFACE LOW WRN VA MOVES EWD...LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS SERN VA INTO
   NERN NC WILL BACK AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE
   AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT.  LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE SUFFICIENT GIVEN COOL...STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR MLCAPES
   RISING TO  1000 J/KG WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAN HEAT INTO THE
   LOW/MID 70S.  WHILE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP BY
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FREEZING LEVELS...THERE
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
   FORMATION.  MOST FAVORABLE SUPERCELL AREA ALONG WITH ISOLATED
   TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW UNDER
   APPROACHING STRONG MID LEVEL JET. STORMS ALSO COULD EVOLVE INTO
   SHORT LINES/BOWS UNDER THE STRONG UPPER JET FOR A MORE ORGANIZED
   WIND THREAT.
   
   ...TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
   A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN TX TO S
   OF FRONTAL ZONE. ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH
   AFTERNOON HEATING TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AS THE STORMS
   CONTINUE DEVELOPING S/SEWD THRU MUCH OF TX BY LATER TONIGHT.
   
   GIVEN MLCAPES RISING TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND 40-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE DOMINANT THREAT.  THERMODYNAMIC
   PARAMETERS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   POTENTIAL.  LARGEST HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE
   ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.
   
   SEVERE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
   S TX AND LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER DARK.
   
   FURTHER E ALONG GULF COAST...WHILE LAPSE RATES FAVOR A FEW SEVERE
   STORMS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THE
   AFOREMENTION AREAS.  SEVERE POTENTIAL THUS WOULD BE MORE WIDELY
   SCATTERED WITH LARGE HAIL THE DOMINANT THREAT.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   UPSLOPE FLOW HAS SPREAD WWD INTO ERN NM AND W OF PECOS VALLEY IN FAR
   SWRN TX ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE
   SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE PERSIST THIS REGION. STRONG HEATING COUPLED
   WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ERN NM/SWRN TX. IN THE
   NWLY FLOW...STORMS WOULD THEN DEVELOP S/SEWD THRU THE HIGH PLAINS
   DURING EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DOWNBURSTS THE PRIMARY
   CONCERN.
   
   ..HALES/GRAM.. 05/14/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        

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