MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0863
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS VA...NC...NRN SC...SERN WV.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 141620Z - 141815Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS ISOLATED AND BETTER
   ORGANIZED THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z.  SEVERE TSTM WW WILL BE ISSUED
   SHORTLY FOR WESTERN PORTION OF THIS AREA.  WW SUBSEQUENTLY MAY BE
   REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THIS REGION FARTHER E AS WELL.
   
   16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY -- ASSOCIATED
   WITH BAND OF WAA RELATED CONVECTION NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS ERN
   VA/EXTREME NERN NC -- ANALYZED FROM SRN PAMLICO SOUND WNWWD ACROSS
   WAKE COUNTY TO VICINITY DAN.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX/MOVE NEWD
   15-25 KT WITH ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION SPREADING INTO
   S-CENTRAL/SERN VA AND NERN NC. RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES OF AROUND 7-8 DEG C/KM -- EVIDENT IN MORNING GSO RAOB -- ARE
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING WRN NC...WRN VA AND SERN WV...AND
   SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL NC THROUGH CENTRAL VA.  THIS WILL
   COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING TO FURTHER REDUCE CINH AND BOOST MLCAPES TO
   AROUND 1000 J/KG FROM W-CENTRAL VA SSWWD TO EXTREME N-CENTRAL SC. 
   ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WEAKEN WITH EWD EXTENT...STRONGER SFC HEATING
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIMILAR BUOYANCY OVER CENTRAL/SRN NC AND
   S-CENTRAL VA...SW OF BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES -- I.E., 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASING WITH SWD EXTENT
   BENEATH MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX...WILL SUPPORT SVR POTENTIAL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/14/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...
   
   34028082 34458176 35458219 37648121 38327818 37417761
   36057645 35067624 34067875 

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