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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1628 UTC 15 November 2006
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST WED NOV 15 2006
   
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
   
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AL...FL
PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA...
   
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN GA AND SC COASTAL
REGION...
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD
INTO SERN STATES AND CAROLINAS...
   
...SYNOPSIS...
WV IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL AR AND
SHOULD MOVE ESEWD INTO NWRN MS THIS EVENING...AS 100 KT MID LEVEL
JET MAX MOVES FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE NWRN GULF. THE UPPER LOW WILL
SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE SERN STATES.
OCCLUDED 992 MB SFC LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL AR SHOULD TRACK AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE TN VALLEY REGION TODAY AND INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL STATES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
SERN ATLANTIC STATES BY DAYBREAK THU.
   
...CNTRL GULF CST INTO TN/GA/FL/CAROLINAS...
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF AL...SWRN GA AND THE
FL PANHANDLE WHERE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST. WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BOUNDARY WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE NEAR 70F.
THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NEWD INTO SERN AL AND SWRN GA THIS
AFTERNOON. MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 1KM SHEAR NEAR 40
KT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
  
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR WILL BE EQUALLY STRONG NORTH OF THIS AREA
...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LESSEN THE
TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE
SHEAR AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CERTAINLY
SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND EVEN TORNADOES.
  
ANOTHER ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SERN GA AND SC COASTAL AREAS AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING JET MAX AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE INLAND FROM THE GULF
STREAM. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES IN THIS AREA.
   
FARTHER NW...AN AREA OF LOW-TOPPED/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
LOCATED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW IN ERN AR. IF SOME CLEARING/HEATING
CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO...GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
STRONG VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.
   
BROAD ZONE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN STRONG/
SEVERE STORMS EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR DAMMING LIKELY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS...AND SHOULD
DIMINISH SEVERE POTENTIAL...DESPITE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS.
   
..IMY/CROSBIE.. 11/15/2006
   
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z



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