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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 2134 UTC 15 November 2006
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 PM CST WED NOV 15 2006
   
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
   
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AL THROUGH SWRN GA AND
THE FL PANHANDLE...
   
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN GA THROUGH
COASTAL SC...
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN U.S....
   
RESENT PER REQUEST
   
...SYNOPSIS...
   
A STRONG UPPER JET IS DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS ALONG WRN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS
SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO EJECT MORE NEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR MEMPHIS TN WILL LIFT NEWD INTO NRN KY
BY 12Z THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SWD THROUGH
ERN MS INTO EXTREME SERN LA...WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW THROUGH SWRN TN AND INTO NRN MS. THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE EAST REACHING THE CAROLINAS LATER TONIGHT.
   
...SERN AL THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE...
   
EXTENSIVE BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS CONTINUES FROM THE FL PANHANDLE
THROUGH MUCH OF AL...WRN GA AND ERN TN. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING
ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HIGHEST
THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES NEXT FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FL PANHANDLE THROUGH SERN AL AND INTO SWRN GA. MID TO UPPER 60S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED INLAND IN THIS REGION
CONTRIBUTING TO BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAN FARTHER NORTH
WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. ACTIVITY IS IN PROXIMITY TO THE
60+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 200 TO 400 M2/S2.
   
FARTHER EAST ACROSS SRN GA...DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60. HOWEVER...FURTHER MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST AND ADVECTS LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS NWD.
   
   
...EXTREME SERN GA THROUGH COASTAL SC...
   
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES OFF THE SC COAST MOVING
NWWD. OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE GULF STREAM AREA. SLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING...RESULTING IN ADVECTION OF THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO COASTAL SC AND SERN GA. THIS WILL SERVE TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION. WHILE SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NWWD MOVING
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON...A TEMPERATURE INVERSION NEAR 850 MB
SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT WHEN INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL SHIFT EAST AND POTENTIALLY WEAKEN THE CAP. STRENGTHENING
LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
   
   
...WRN TN THROUGH EXTREME ERN MS AND EXTREME WRN AL...
   
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED CUMULUS ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM SWRN
TN THROUGH ERN MS WHERE SOME DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ALONG WRN
EDGE OF THICKER CLOUD SHIELD. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
AXIS OF MUCAPE FROM 300 TO 500 J/KG. THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS
ARE SHIFTING EAST OF THIS REGION. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS VORT MAX PIVOTS AROUND UPPER TROUGH AND
ENHANCES DEEPER LAYER ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERALL
THREAT IS LIMITED THOUGH BY WEAK INSTABILITY.
   
   
..WRN THROUGH CNTRL CAROLINAS...
   
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS IS CURRENTLY STABLE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THIS REGION TONIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL THREAT IS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL.
   
..DIAL.. 11/15/2006
 
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z



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