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Mesoscale Discussion #863 issued at 1620 UTC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SC...WRN NC...FAR ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 212322Z - 220045Z
   
   THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS AND NERN GA
   WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN
   GA INTO WRN NC WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F. LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AND SFC HEATING IS RESULTING IN
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED
   THIS EVENING DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY REMAINING IN PLACE THIS EVENING WITH STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A SEVERE THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL
   AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. DUE TO THE WEAK ASCENT...THE ACTIVITY
   SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND
   INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 04/21/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
          


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