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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1306 UTC
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0806 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
   INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY/MID SOUTH...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD TODAY
   ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...OPENING INTO A TROUGH TONIGHT AS IT MOVES
   TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
   UPSTREAM FLOW PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO AMPLIFY PER MODEL FORECASTS
   WITH A RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AS TROUGH DEEPENS
   ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
   THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE REACHING THE MS VALLEY WHILE THE TROUGH
   SETTLES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY 27/12Z.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER LOWER MI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO NY
   THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. COLD FRONT TRAILING
   SWWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD THE MID
   ATLANTIC COAST...CONTINUING WWD AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE TN
   VALLEY...THEN LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY
   AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.  A SERIES OF
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM VA
   WWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THESE MAY PROVIDE
   ADDITIONAL FOCI FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. 
   LASTLY...A NORTH-SOUTH DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER
   ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO CAROLINAS AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
   DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES
   UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THIS REGION
   TODAY...ENHANCED BY MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EARLY VISIBLE
   IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES FROM THE DELMARVA ACROSS SERN VA INTO MUCH
   OF THE CAROLINAS.  ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS ARE SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR.  THIS
   WILL ALLOW STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION
   TODAY WHERE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 65-70F
   RANGE. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT MODERATE STEEP LAPSE RATES
   WHICH WILL INCREASE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE
   OF 1500-2000 J/KG/.
   
   SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND
   ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER WV/WRN VA/WRN PA REGION AS UPPER
   SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STRONGEST DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS NWD INTO
   THE DELMARVA REGION WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND
   INTENSITY.  A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PRIMARY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
   LARGE HAIL.  ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WWD INTO PARTS OF
   GA AND AL ALONG REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG SRN EDGE OF
   UPPER TROUGH WHERE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT (MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG)
   WILL BE LOCATED.
   
   ...MID SOUTH REGION...
   ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS MCS MOVING ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK
   HAS GENERATED AN MCV.  THIS FEATURE MAY CONTINUE MOVING SEWD TOWARD
   AR TODAY...WHERE 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE IN THE
   800-550 MB LAYER.  THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS LOW
   LEVEL HEATING COUPLES WITH POSSIBLE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   UPSTREAM MCV...WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON.  STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG
   SUGGESTS THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   ...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
   ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO PARTS OF
   KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD/ESEWD THIS MORNING.  STRONGER
   CELLS IN KS MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL.  OTHER SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO NWD ACROSS WRN PARTS OF
   THE DAKOTAS AND ERN MT...AS WEAK PERTURBATIONS WITHIN STRENGTHENING
   SWLY FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS WRN EDGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. 
   12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND CLEAR
   SKIES WILL PROMOTE STRONG INSOLATION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   DESTABILIZATION.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE THE STRONGEST OVER THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH 40-50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM...WITH SHEAR
   OF 30-35 KT EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SEVERAL CLUSTERS
   OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS AND MOVE NEWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SOME OF
   THE ACTIVITY LIKELY PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW
   LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AFTER DARK.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EVIDENT IN 12Z SOUNDINGS AT AMA AND MAF
   WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES PRESENT ABOVE THE PBL.  THIS
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE DRY
   LINE WHERE MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG IS EXPECTED.  FORCING FOR LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
   AND DRY LINE CONVERGENCE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE WEAK SUGGESTING
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.  HOWEVER...THE 06Z
   ETA AND NAM-WRF PARALLEL AND THE 00Z EXPERIMENTAL HIGH RESOLUTION
   WRF-NMM ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF WRN TX LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.  GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR A FEW PULSE STORMS OR
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL/DOWNBURSTS.
   
   ...SRN FL...
   WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA
   TODAY AS STRONGER BRANCH OF MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST OVER THE
   AREA...ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER
   THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST OF SOUTH FL AS STORMS PROGRESS EWD
   TOWARD EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT.
   
   ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 05/26/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z


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