Skip Navigation Linkswww.weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
WFO Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
 

Local forecast by
"City, St"
  
Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1630 UTC
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHERN AR...ACROSS THE
   TN VALLEY...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
   
   ...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO CAROLINAS...
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EASTWARD INTO NY AND NEW
   ENGLAND TODAY...WITH BAND OF 40-50 KNOT WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS BENEATH UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OH VALLEY.  HOWEVER...STRONG
   HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
   NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST VA AND MUCH OF NC.  THIS
   AREA IS LIKELY TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND 1000-2000
   J/KG OVER VA/NC.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
   THIS AREA...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN STRONGER
   CELLS. POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND WILL BE MITIGATED BY LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE
   FLOW.
   
   ...AR/TN/MS/AL/GA...
   REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EXTEND FROM
   STORMS OVER KS...ACROSS PARTS OF AR/TN INTO MS/AL/GA.  BOUNDARIES
   ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
   AMPLE MOISTURE AND MODERATELY/VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUGGEST A
   THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.  UPPER RIDGE
   WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO WESTERN PARTS OF AREA AFTER 00Z...LIKELY
   DIMINISHING THREAT.
   
   ...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
   BROAD ZONE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT FROM
   KS INTO ND TODAY.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   THROUGHOUT THE REGION. DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WEST EDGE
   OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN WY.  ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
   SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS/NEB/KS THROUGH THE EVENING. 
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.  STRONGER LOW
   LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO LIE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEB
   AND NORTHERN KS...WHERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES
   MAY ALSO OCCUR.
   
   ...EASTERN MT...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN WY INTO
   ND THIS EVENING.  NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT ACROSS
   EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
   AND FULL SUNSHINE MOST OF THE DAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SCATTERED EVENING STORMS.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   ...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...OH/PA/WV...
   BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND POCKET OF COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. 
   HAIL MAY OCCUR IN STRONGER CELLS BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ...SOUTH FL...
   VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT TODAY OVER
   SOUTH FL...BENEATH BRANCH OF STRONGER WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
    CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS REGION. 
   HOWEVER...CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
   DEVELOP ACROSS AREA.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE
   MAIN THREAT.
   
   ...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER VORT MAX MOVING EASTWARD
   ACROSS WESTERN NM.  THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR TIME OF PEAK HEATING. 
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG WEST EDGE OF STRONGER
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER WEST TX.  WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
   AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
   
   ..HART/TAYLOR.. 05/26/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z


Local Climate Water & Weather Topics:
Current Hazards, Current Conditions, Radar, Satellite, Climate, Weather Safety, Contact Us

National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office Greenville-Spartanburg
GSP International Airport
1549 GSP Drive
Greer, SC 29651
(864) 848-3859
Questions or Comments? Send us email
Page last modified: August 26, 2011

Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities