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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1943 UTC
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   VALID 262000Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE
   MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...ERN STATES...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW ROTATING EWD INTO THE UPPER
   OH VLY THIS AFTN.  MODEST H5 JET WRAPPING EWD BENEATH THE LOW WAS
   ENHANCING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.  STRONG-SEVERE
   TSTMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE SEA-BREEZE AND LEE-TROUGH FROM SCNTRL
   VA SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...ENHANCED BY THE LARGE SCALE LIFT. 
   STRONG HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. THIRTY-40 KTS OF MEAN FLOW
   IN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENCOURAGE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN VA INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS
   EVENING.
   
   MEANWHILE...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR BENEATH MINUS 12 DEGREE C
   H5 TEMPERATURES ASSOCD WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN FAVORABLE FOR SCT
   TSTMS FROM THE KY COALFIELDS NWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY.  SOME OF
   THESE TSTMS MAY ADVANCE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU AND/OR DEVELOP
   ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS IN VA/MD THROUGH THE AFTN.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
   LARGELY DIURNAL AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND
   GUSTY WINDS.
   
   FARTHER N...CLOUDS AND PCPN HAVE UNDERMINED STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTN THROUGHOUT CNTRL/ERN PA NEWD INTO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND. THIS COMBINED WITH POOR MID-TROP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THAT
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY.
   
   ...NRN PLAINS...
   SFC LOW APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING ACROSS CNTRL WY AT 19Z WITH
   BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKING TO A MORE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN NERN WY
   AND SCNTRL MT. THIS LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORY SHOULD ADVECT 50S SFC DEW
   POINTS SWWD AND BE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING MOUNTAIN TSTMS LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE AND/OR DEVELOP NEWD ALONG/N OF
   THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO PARTS OF ND OVERNIGHT...ALONG SERN
   PERIPHERY OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH.  FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
   AND LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS EVOLVING INTO LINE
   SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK VORT MAX ROTATING NEWD THROUGH NCNTRL NM
   AND SCNTRL CO THIS AFTN.  THIS HAS LIKELY ENHANCED THE DIURNAL
   UPSLOPE ACROSS THE CO/WY FRONT RANGE...MAINTAINING MODEST BOUNDARY
   LAYER MSTR TO THE MOUNTAINS.  HEATING...UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF MOUNTAIN TSTMS
   THROUGH THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS.  VERTICAL SHEAR
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY EARLY IN THE TSTM
   LIFE-CYCLES WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  EVOLUTION
   INTO AN MCS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT FROM NERN CO/SERN WY ACROSS NEB AND
   SRN SD.  HERE...THE LLJ AXIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPINGE ON A NW-SE
   ORIENTED WARM FRONT...MAXIMIZING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. 
   LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS OWING TO THE STEEP
   MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A PATCH OF MID-LEVEL MSTR WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE TX HIGH PLAINS ON
   SATL IMAGERY.  GIVEN VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE-TROUGH...CINH SHOULD
   ERODE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS WITHIN THE MID-CLOUD
   LATER THIS AFTN.  VERTICAL SHEAR 30-40 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENCOURAGE MICROBURSTS.
    COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD.
   
   ...CNTRL/SRN FL...
   WEAK SEABREEZE WAS THE FOCUS FOR TSTM INITIATION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL
   EARLY THIS AFTN.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF PEAK HEATING... LOCALIZED
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE IMPETUS FOR NEW UPDRAFTS.  MAIN THREAT
   WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/26/2006
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z


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