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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1256 UTC
SPC AC 281256
   
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT THU SEP 28 2006
   
VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...
   
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ATTAIN MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE THIS
PERIOD AS POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER MO CONTINUES SE INTO NRN
AL EARLY TONIGHT.  THE FEATURE SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE E/NE TO THE
MID ATLANTIC CST BY 12Z FRIDAY AND ASSUME A NEGATIVE TILT AS
UPSTREAM SPEED MAX IN ALBERTA CONTINUES SE TO IA.
   
AT LWR LEVELS...SRN HALF OF STRONG SFC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM
THE ERN GRT LKS TO LWR MS VLY SHOULD SWEEP SE ACROSS THE TN VLY/SRN
APLCNS TODAY...WHILE NRN PART ADVANCES MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
CNTRL/NRN APLCNS TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MD/VA MOUNTAINS.  A WAVE
LIKELY TO FORM ON THE FRONT IN THE NC/VA PIEDMONT SHOULD MOVE N/NE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND REACH THE UPR HUDSON VLY BY 12Z FRIDAY.
   
...SRN/CNTRL APLCNS TO MID ATL CST...
A SETUP SIMILAR TO TODAY'S FEATURING AMPLIFIED AND INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES COULD YIELD A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT.  BUT
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED BY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS AS
OLD BAROCLINIC BAND AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL WAVES REMAIN OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC.
   
NEVERTHELESS...APPROACH OF UPR SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD WILL
ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR ACROSS SLIGHT RISK REGION...WITH DEEP WSW TO SWLY
SHEAR INCREASING TO AOA 40 KTS FROM UPSTATE GA/SC TO THE DELMARVA
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY.  SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR WILL EXIST NWD
INTO ERN PA/NJ...WHERE PRESENCE OF OFFSHORE WAVE LIKELY WILL KEEP
LOW LEVEL WINDS SOMEWHAT BACKED.
   
WHILE LESS THAN IDEAL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY...WITH SURFACE
HEATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST TO PROMOTE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT FROM CNTRL/ERN PA SW INTO N GA AND ERN AL BY
MID AFTN.  HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
MAY ALSO SUPPORT A COUPLE STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE CAROLINAS/SRN
VA INVOF LOW LEVEL TROUGHS/CONFLUENCE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OFFSHORE
WAVES.
   
GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR /LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS AND
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS/...AND EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS...SOME OF THE ACTIVITY COULD YIELD DAMAGING WIND AND
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.  WIND PROFILES SHOULD BECOME MORE LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY IN AREA SUBJECT TO GREATEST
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FROM ERN SC NWD INTO CNTRL VA /CAPE TO
1500 J PER KG/.  BUT SLIGHTLY BACKED FLOW COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED 
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY AS FRONTAL WAVE BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND 850 MB
FLOW STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING FROM NRN NC AND THE TIDEWATER VA AREA
NWD INTO DE AND POSSIBLY SRN NJ.
   
THE SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY AS PREFRONTAL STORM
OUTFLOW PUSH EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE.
  
..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 09/28/2006
   
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z



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