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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1603 UTC
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT THU SEP 28 2006
   
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
  
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE...
   
...SYNOPSIS...
LOW CAPE-HIGH SHEAR SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING ACROSS THE
SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.  STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90+ KT
MID LEVEL JET WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUSTAIN A BROKEN LINE
OF MOIST CONVECTION...WHICH WILL INCREASE AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ROBUST SHEAR INDICATES A SEVERE
THREAT WILL INCREASE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE DEVELOP AND BE
SUSTAINED.
   
...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
HAS MAINTAINED SOME SMALL BOW ECHO STRUCTURES. THOUGH INSTABILITY
REMAINS QUITE LIMITED...ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON INTO WV/WRN VA AND WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN TN AND WRN NC THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
   
...DELMARVA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
MODELS MAINTAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
INTO THE DELMARVA AND CENTRAL PA BY THE MID AFTERNOON...WHERE
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES ROBUST HEATING WILL OCCUR.  ATTM...APPEARS
STRATOCUMULUS IS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NERN PA BENEATH
CAPPING UNDER H85 THERMAL RIDGE.  EXPECT HEATING AND DEEP ASCENT
WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THIS
REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  GIVEN DEGREE OF
SHEAR AND DEEP ASCENT WITHIN EVEN MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY...SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
TEND TO EVOLVE INTO SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES.  HOWEVER...RUC AND
NAM/WRF DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW NWD ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND INTO NY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR
TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY OF SERN PA.  SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...A TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACCORDINGLY NEAR AND EAST
OF THE LOW TRACK.  FARTHER EAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...APPEARS AIR MASS WILL REMAIN LESS STABLE WITH FRONT/SQUALL
LINE REACHING THE COAST AFTER PEAK HEATING WHICH MAY LIMIT SEVERITY
OF THIS ACTIVITY AFTER DARK.
   
...VA INTO THE PIEDMONT/CHESAPEAKE REGION...
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST INTO THIS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS SURFACE DEW POINTS
INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S AND STRONG HEATING OCCURS. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN INCREASING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TRACKING W-E ACROSS THIS REGION BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS AREAS
FARTHER NORTH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
DARK AS 60+ KT SSWLY H5 WINDS OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR NEARER THE
COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN SMALL LINES WITHIN...AND MAY
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS BOTH WITHIN AND AHEAD OF...DEVELOPING
SQUALL LINE.  WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY.
   
..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 09/28/2006
   
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z



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