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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1635 UTC 14 September 2007
SPC AC 141635
   
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007
   
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
   
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
...WRN NY/PA AREA THIS EVENING...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE EWD FROM LOWER MI/INDIANA TO OH/WRN
PA/WRN NY BY EARLY TONIGHT.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE
QUITE LIMITED IN IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...WHILE THE
SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE PLUME EXISTS FARTHER TO THE E IN PA/NY. 
GIVEN THE STRONG LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...A NARROW BAND OF
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.  THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME THREAT FOR
ISOLATED STORMS FARTHER E IN THE MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS PA/NY LATE
TODAY...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT HERE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AS A
RESULT OF WEAK INSTABILITY.
   
...NRN AL/GA THIS AFTERNOON...
THE REMNANTS OF TC HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD OVER NRN
AL/GA...ALONG A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS BEING REINFORCED BY
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.  LOCAL VWP/S AND 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE
BANDS...THOUGH ANY TORNADO OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BRIEF AND ISOLATED.
   
...SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SWD TO NEAR THE RED RIVER AND WWD TO
NEAR THE FRONT RANGE IN NE NM AND CO.  AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL
REMAIN TO THE N OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN KS/ERN CO/EXTREME NE
NM...WHERE A RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND THICK STRATUS WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.  THE ONLY
AREA WITH ANY REASONABLE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE CLOSE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN IN NM...NEAR THE FRONTAL
ZONE.  HERE...MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S...AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
WESTERLIES...MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL
STORMS.  HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
SPARSE...ALONG WITH ANY ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. 
LATER TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR HAIL WITH ELEVATED
STORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA AND A NOCTURNAL LLJ.
   
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 09/14/2007
   
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z



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