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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1958 UTC 14 September 2007
SPC AC 141958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007
   
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
   
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
...SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS N GA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH LOCAL
VWP/S SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED TO SWLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND THAT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE
WITH TIME ACROSS GA/SC.  FARTHER NE...A REMNANT FRONTAL
ZONE/MOISTURE GRADIENT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK LOW IN NWRN NC SEWD INTO
ERN NC. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS GREATER ALONG THIS NW-SE FRONT ACROSS
NC...WHERE LOCAL VWP/S SHOW 0-1 KM SRH OF ROUGHLY 100-125
M2/S2...AND NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS ARE RESULTING IN LCL HEIGHTS BELOW
1000 M.  GIVEN THE BROKEN BAND OF DISCRETE STORMS ALONG THIS FRONTAL
ZONE...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
   
...WRN NY/NW PA/FAR NE OH...
A COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT ON SFC ANALYSIS ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO
EXTENDING SWWD INTO WRN OH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING
ACROSS NE OH...NW PA AND WRN NY AND THIS WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO
CONTINUE WARMING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS SWRN
ONTARIO TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOW GREATER
THAN 7.5 C/KM FROM NRN NY EXTENDING SWWD INTO NE OH AND THIS
CORRIDOR SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL. HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS MAINLY IN WRN
NY WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER.
   
...SE CO/NE NM/WRN KS...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND A
MOIST AXIS EXISTS FROM WEST TX EXTENDING NWWD INTO NE NM. CONTINUED
SFC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SUGGEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY
STEEP. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS NE NM SUGGEST
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL POSSIBLE. THE
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS FAR SE CO
AND FAR WRN KS THIS EVENING.
   
..BROYLES.. 09/14/2007
   
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z



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