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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1229 UTC 5 January 2007
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST FRI JAN 05 2007
   
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
   
...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOWER MS VALLEY EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FILLING BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH RAPIDLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WRN U.S. THIS LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE ERN
CAROLINAS BY 06Z AND OFFSHORE BY 12Z SAT SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED.

THE SHARPNESS ON THE LOWER MS VALLEY TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND ONGOING IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE MOVING THRU AL SUGGEST THAT THE
MODELS COULD BE A LITTLE QUICK ON THE WEAKENING PROCESS.
   
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND
IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE EWD THRU THE CAROLINAS. WHILE THE
TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING STEADILY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE.
   
CURRENT N/S SQUALL LINE CENTRAL AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE WITH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SUPPORTED BY 60-70KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/30-35KT OF SFC TO 1KM SHEAR AND HELICITIES FROM 250-300 M2/S2.
   
   
SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO ENTER WRN GA BY 14Z AND LIKELY REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TODAYS SEVERE POTENTIAL.  SFC HEATING ACROSS GA
INTO SC AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL
ALLOW MLCAPES TO CLIMB TO 1000 J/KG OR GREATER.
   
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE SQUALL LINE WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR.
   
A CONTINUED SMALL TORNADO THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD INTO SRN SC THIS
EVENING AS SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL MAINTAIN SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
ALONG/AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE.
   
HAVE MAINTAINED A MORE CONDITIONAL RISK AS FAR E AS ERN NC
OVERNIGHT.  WHILE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN PRESENCE OF 60 PLUS
DEWPOINTS AND 35-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
SUPPORT FOR CONTINUATION OF SQUALL LINE AND AT LEAST A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT.
   
GFS IN PARTICULAR INDICATES A STRONG CONVECTIVE SIGNAL EWD ACROSS
NRN FL THIS AFTN/EVE.  VERY MOIST AND MDTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F THIS AREA COUPLED WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 80F BY
AFTERNOON RESULTS IN MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.  COUPLED WITH MDT
SHEAR...SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED 
NRN FL EVEN WITH THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY
THIS EVENING.
   
..HALES.. 01/05/2007

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z



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