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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1629 UTC 5 January 2007
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST FRI JAN 05 2007
   
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN STATES...
   
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT...BUT INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MS
AT MID MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS NEWD
INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH IN THE WEST. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE WEAKENED SYSTEM TOO
FAST AND THIS COULD BE THE CASE AGAIN GIVEN LATEST WATER VAPOR
TRENDS AND RELATIVELY WEAKEN CONFLUENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
   
...SERN STATES...
A SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EWD AT 35-40 KT THROUGH WRN GA/SERN AL AND
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD MORE
RAPIDLY. AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS...MID 60 DEWPOINTS
...WAS SPREADING NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE INTO THE
CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S AND YIELD MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG EAST OF THE
SQUALL LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50-60 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE LINE. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
COMBINED WITH 1 KM SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TORNADOES. ALSO...DRYING BETWEEN 925-800 MB...AND EVIDENT AT HIGH
LEVELS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT ALONG THE EWD MOVING SQUALL LINE. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT...THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AN ACTIVE SQUALL LINE
INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS. THE PRESENCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 45-50 KT AND 1 KM SHEAR AT 20-30 KT
INDICATES THE THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT.
   
..IMY.. 01/05/2007
   
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z



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