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Mesoscale Discussion #0015 issued at 1706 UTC
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CST FRI JAN 05 2007
   
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA...NWRN SC
   
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
VALID 051706Z - 051700Z
   
STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AT UP TO
40KT AND INTO PARTS OF NERN GA/NWRN SC THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. A
NEW TORNADO WATCH COVERING PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SHORTLY.
   
DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND 300-400 J PER
KG/...STRONG FORCING AND POTENT WIND FIELDS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
A CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST RUC FORECASTS CONFIRM OBSERVATIONAL
DATA THAT SURFACE AIR MASS ACROSS NWRN SC WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS DEPICT
INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS SPREAD ENEWD. SMALL SCALE LEWP/BOW
STRUCTURES ALREADY EVIDENT IN THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND OCCASIONAL/BRIEF TORNADOES. A NEW WATCH
WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY.
   
..CARBIN.. 01/05/2007
   
   
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...



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