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Local forecast by
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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1236 UTC 15 March 2008
Click here to view the Day 1 Probabilistic Outlook for tornadoes, large hail, 
and damaging wind gusts at 1236 UTC 28 April 2008.
SPC AC 281236
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0736 AM CDT MON APR 28 2008
   
   VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE MID AND S ATLANTIC
   CST...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR OH AND TN
   VLY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LWR 48
   THROUGH TUESDAY.  POTENT UPR VORT NOW OVER SRN IA EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE SE TO NEAR EVV THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING MORE E TO THE
   WV/VA BORDER AREA EARLY TUESDAY.  THIS WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY EXISTING
   LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AS LEAD IMPULSE NOW CROSSING
   THE TN VLY IS ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW OVER THE MID
   ATLANTIC STATES.
   
   AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL
   CONTINUE E ACROSS THE SRN AND MID ATLANTIC CSTL PLN LATER TODAY AS
   UPSTREAM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH IA VORT...SURGES SE ACROSS THE LWR
   OH AND TN VLYS.
   
   ...ERN SEABOARD...
   CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD
   FRONT CROSSING ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID AND S ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. 
   NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW /PWS AOA
   1.25 IN/ AND INCREASING ASCENT/CONVERGENCE ON E SIDE OF PROGRESSIVE
   LARGER-SCALE TROUGH...EVEN MODEST HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
   BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTN AND EVE.  THE
   STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED ACTIVITY MAY FOCUS ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SSW ALONG THE
   CSTL PLN INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS/SE GA.
   
   LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK.  BUT HEATING/MOISTURE
   INFLOW SHOULD BOOST SBCAPE TO AOA 500 J/KG.  COUPLED WITH
   STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LVL WIND FIELD /500 MB SW FLOW AOA 50 KTS
   ATOP A 40 KT SSWLY LLJ/...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING
   STORMS/SUPERCELLS.  BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ANY SUCH STRUCTURES WILL
   POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR
   TWO.  THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE CST BY EARLY TONIGHT.
   
   ...LWR OH/TN VLYS...
   A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS WILL FORM EARLY THIS AFTN ALONG COLD
   FRONT CROSSING THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS.  DESPITE SPARSE MOISTURE...
   VERY COLD AIR ALOFT /AROUND MINUS 28C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH UPR
   VORT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE STATIC INSTABILITY.  THIS
   ...COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING AND ASCENT...WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR STORMS WITH HAIL.  MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...
   SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS...AND LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT
   MAY ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
   
   ..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 04/28/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z



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