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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1259 UTC 4 March 2008
SPC AC 041259
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0659 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008
   
   VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/ERN SC NEWD INTO SE
   VA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
   FROM CNTRL FL INTO SE PA/SRN NJ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT AR CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT ENE INTO PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
   AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW OVER ORE CONTINUES SE TO THE FOUR CORNERS.
   AR SYSTEM WILL ASSUME AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT...ESPECIALLY
   TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS IT BEGINS TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN
   STRONG NRN STREAM FLOW ACROSS SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC.
   
   AT LWR LEVELS...SFC LOW NOW NEAR BNA SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO WV THIS
   EVENING...AND DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES N/NE TO NEAR SYR EARLY
   WEDNESDAY.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING S ACROSS WRN AL
   SHOULD ACCELERATE E ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.  THE
   FRONT WILL OVERTAKE EXISTING PREFRONTAL SQLN NOW IN WRN GA/ERN
   AL...AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA CST EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   ...CNTRL/NRN FL THROUGH GA/THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST...
   AL/GA PREFRONTAL SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY E ACROSS GA
   AND NW FL THROUGH THIS AFTN AS AR UPR SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD. 
   MERIDIONAL NATURE OF UPR PATTERN WILL KEEP COLDEST AIR ALOFT W OF
   SQLN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.  BUT THERMODYNAMIC DATA IN
   MORNING RAOBS AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND EXPECTED DEGREE OF SFC
   HEATING...SUGGEST THAT EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY BY
   EARLY/MID AFTN OVER ERN GA AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE SC/NC PIEDMONT. 
   A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO FORM LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT IN
   INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT...MOIST LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ERN SC/NC
   CSTL PLN.
   
   WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASING FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
   SUPERCELLS OVER THE S ATLANTIC PIEDMONT AND CSTL PLN TODAY...AND
   PROFILES LIKELY WILL BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE NEWD INTO DELMARVA
   REGION TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS UPR SYSTEM ACCELERATES NEWD AND
   ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT.  STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD /60+ KT
   SSW FLOW AT 850 MB/ AND INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW OFF THE WRN
   ATLANTIC /SFC DEWPOINTS AOA 60 F NW TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY EARLY
   TONIGHT/ SUGGEST A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
   GIVEN EXPECTED PRESENCE OF SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/BROKEN SEGMENTS IN
   SQLN.
   
   THE SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z WEDNESDAY AS UPR
   DIVERGENCE/ASCENT AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVERSPREAD REMAINING
   PRE-SQLN WARM SECTOR IN THE DELMARVA REGION...DESPITE  LIMITED
   INSTABILITY.
   
   FARTHER S...STRONGER PORTION OF SQLN NOW OVER THE NERN GULF SW OF
   PAM/AQQ WILL AFFECT NW FL AND THE W CNTRL PART OF THE STATE THIS
   AFTN.  STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG VEERING
   PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS THAT COULD AFFECT THE
   CTY/TPA AREAS WITH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES LATER TODAY.
   
   ...ERN KY...
   DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF DIURNAL HEATING...A SMALL AREA OF SFC-BASED
   INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN INVOF SFC LOW OVER ERN KY.  GIVEN
   DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED
   WITH EJECTING UPR TROUGH...ANY STORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE HAIL
   AND/OR LOCALLY DMGG WIND.  ANY SUCH THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
   SPACE/TIME.
   
   ..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 03/04/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z


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