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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CST TUE MAR 04 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC/SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 041903Z - 042100Z
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THE 04/21-05/00Z TIME
FRAME...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
STRONGER 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE NOW DEVELOPING TO THE LEE
OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS/SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. AND...THIS IS
WHERE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY
WAVE/MESO LOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A WEAKENING PRE-FRONTAL BAND
OF CONVECTION SPREADS OFF TO THE EAST...AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SURFACE HEATING APPEARS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY INTENSIFYING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY BECOME RATHER MOIST/POTENTIALLY
POSITIVELY BUOYANT...AND...WITH THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL
COOLING...CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THE
APPROACH OF A 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INTENSIFICATION OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET FROM
50-70 KT...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER/EXTREME LOW
-LEVEL SHEAR. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE SQUALL LINE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN
SUPERCELLS WITHIN AND AHEAD OF LINE. THIS COULD AFFECT THE
CHARLOTTE NC/COLUMBIA SC AREAS BY 05/00Z.
..KERR.. 03/04/2008
ATTN...WFO...RAH...CAE...GSP...
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