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Mesoscale Discussion #0349 issued at 1930 UTC 4 March 2008
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CST TUE MAR 04 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...MUCH OF NRN/CNTRL GA INTO FAR WRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 96...
   
   VALID 041930Z - 042100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 96 CONTINUES.
   
   DUE TO WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE
   INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN GRADUAL.  BUT...FRONTAL SQUALL LINE
   EVOLUTION IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY...WITH STEADY FURTHER STRENGTHENING
   LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE
   SUPPORTED BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD
   OF INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IN THE PEAK AFTERNOON
   HEATING.  
   
   RUC GUIDANCE ALREADY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
   CORE ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WHICH WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE OF THE
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  AND...VWP DATA FROM AREA
   RADARS INDICATE 50+ KT SOUTHERLY FLOW BELOW 1000 FEET AGL.  EXTREME
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH
   OF A 100 KT 500 MB JET STREAK WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR
   TORNADOES.  MEANWHILE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
   DRYING TO ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS.  THIS WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING
   STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS WELL...ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
   21-22Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/04/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...



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