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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 0559 UTC 15 March 2008
SPC AC 150559
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL GA
   INTO A PART OF SC...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
   INTO A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL
   CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES...REACHING THE
   CAROLINAS SATURDAY EVENING. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SURFACE
   LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
   NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY WITH TRAILING
   COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S..
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   
   ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
   PERIOD WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL
   JET AND JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MOSTLY FROM PARTS OF THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT
   FOR HAIL AS THEY LIFT NEWD ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO DESTABILIZE
   IN THEIR WAKE. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
   WILL ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR OVER THE SERN STATES ALONG SWLY LOW
   LEVEL JET. PLUME OF STEEP 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD
   OVER THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION
   WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THE CAP WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
   STORMS TO REDEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT REGIME IN PRE-FRONTAL
   WARM SECTOR FROM SRN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY INTO NRN AL...NRN GA AND
   EWD INTO SC. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH 80+ KT WLY MID LEVEL JET
   COUPLED WITH A SWLY 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LARGE LOW
   LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 250
   M2/S2 ALONG WITH 70+ KT BULK SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH SC AND
   SRN PORTIONS OF NC DURING THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
   OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..DIAL/GRAMS.. 03/15/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z



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