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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1227 UTC 15 March 2008
Click here to view the Day 1 Probabilistic Outlook for tornadoes, large hail, 
and damaging wind gusts at 1227 UTC.
SPC AC 151227
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0727 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
   
   VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME EASTERN
   ALABAMA...ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...INTO
   WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EAST TO NC
   AND SOUTH TO ERN SC AND SOME OF SRN GA...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY 500MB WINDS OF UP
   TO 90KT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE TN VALLEY AND
   SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE
   TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND WAS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO A
   WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY PIEDMONT FRONT FROM NRN GEORGIA INTO THE
   CAROLINAS.
   
   THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK/DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE TN
   VALLEY TO A POSITION NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE
   TODAY. THE WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
   OVERSPREAD THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF
   STRONG STORMS THIS MORNING. A SMALLER-SCALE/SECONDARY LOW MAY TAKE
   FORM ALONG THE PIEDMONT FRONT AMIDST WARM MOIST AND INCREASINGLY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ORGANIZING INFLUENCE
   OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD RESULT IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED TORNADO
   POTENTIAL FROM PARTS OF ERN AL ACROSS GA AND INTO SC LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST...
   LONG-LIVED BOWING STORM COMPLEX NOW APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING
   STRONGER INSTABILITY AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
   NWRN SC. THIS MESOSCALE COMPLEX DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
   STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PLAINS SURFACE CYCLONE AND
   APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED OVERNIGHT BY FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION
   OF LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY BISECTING AL/GA.
   WHILE THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME STRUCTURE...THE
   INCREASINGLY STABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE GA/SC BORDER
   SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE DECAYING COMPLEX EARLY.
   BUT...THE RESIDUAL/OUTFLOW EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM COULD PLAY A ROLE
   IN ENHANCING TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER TODAY.
   
   STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON ELEVATED
   FRONTAL SURFACE CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NRN AL ATTM.
   STRONG DYNAMIC ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL
   JET STREAK SHOULD SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING EAST FROM NRN AL
   INTO NRN GA THROUGH THE MORNING. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST.
   
   WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS STRENGTHENING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO
   THE TN VALLEY...AND 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD EAST FROM MS
   TO GA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S F... STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES AND STRONG DYNAMIC ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PROMOTE
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
   AND MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO AT LEAST 1500 J/KG.
   
   DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OR CONTINUE INTENSIFYING WITHIN THE LOW
   LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER BULK
   SHEAR TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. FORECAST WIND PROFILES FROM ERN AL TO
   SERN TN...NRN GA...AND SC ALL SHOW PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
   CURVATURE WITH EFFECTIVE SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200-400 M2/S2. THESE
   VALUES COULD BE LOCALLY GREATER NEAR PIEDMONT FRONT...POSSIBLE
   SECONDARY LOW...AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE WAKE OF
   THE MORNING STORMS.
   
   TSTMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING STRONG
   TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. SOME CELLS MAY REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG
   PIEDMONT BOUNDARY AND COULD TRACK FOR SOME DISTANCE ACROSS PARTS OF
   GA/SC...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO NC THROUGH THE EVENING. AN MCS COULD
   EVOLVE FROM INITIALLY DISCRETE CONVECTION DUE TO ORGANIZING
   INFLUENCE OF INTENSIFYING SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS ERN NC THROUGH LATE EVENING. WIND FIELDS AND FORCING WITH
   THIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD FURTHER SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO THE
   NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN NC.  HOWEVER... UNCERTAINTIES
   REGARDING RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF DECAYING MORNING MCS AND AIR MASS
   QUALITY/RECOVERY ACROSS ERN NC PRECLUDE INCREASING THE TORNADO
   PROBABILITIES TO SUPPORT A MDT RISK AT THIS TIME. DEPENDING ON
   MESOSCALE EVOLUTION LATER TODAY...THE MDT RISK AREA MAY NEED TO BE
   EXPANDED INTO NC.
   
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT
   MOVES FROM TN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..CARBIN/GRAMS.. 03/15/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z



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