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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1614 UTC 15 March 2008
Click here to view the Day 1 Probabilistic Outlook for tornadoes, large hail, 
and damaging wind gusts at 1614 UTC.
SPC AC 151614
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
   
   VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HALF OF GA...MUCH OF SC AND
   SERN NC...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS
   MUCH OF TN VALLEY...
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   PREVIOUS DAY1 FORECAST/DISCUSSION LOOKS ON TRACK AS A POTENT SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT RAPIDLY EVOLVES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN
   STATES.  INTENSIFYING VORT MAX AS CAN BE SEEN WITH DARKENING ON W/V
   IMAGERY MOVING RAPIDLY EWD INTO WRN TN VALLEY TIED TO THE 90-100KT
   MID LEVEL WIND MAX JUST TO ITS S. BOTH FEATURES WILL ENHANCE BOTH
   THE SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT SPREADS ACROSS TN VALLEY AND
   NRN GULF STATES TO THE CAROLINAS BY THIS EVENING.
   
   THE MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NRN GA
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACKS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL  NC BY EARLY
   TONIGHT.  WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP EWD FROM THE LOW WITH THE
   COMBINATION OF STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
   WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG CENTRAL GA ACROSS SC.
   
   ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO NWRN GA EXPECTED TO
   RAPIDLY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
   THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO SC.  GIVEN THE VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL JET MAX AND A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET
   TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS SC/SRN NC BY THIS EVENING...TORNADIC
   SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.
   
   HAVE EXTENDED THE MDT RISK INTO SERN NC AND COASTAL SC AS IT NOW
   APPEARS WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING
   THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD MOVE INTO THIS AREA INCREASING THE POTENTIAL 
   FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
   
   AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AIRMASS IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT
   CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  PRIMARY THREAT WILL
   BE LARGE HAIL AS STORMS SPREAD WED ACROSS TN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..HALES/HURLBUT.. 03/15/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT


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