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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1940 UTC 15 March 2008
Click here to view the Day 1 Probabilistic Outlook for tornadoes, large hail, 
and damaging wind gusts at 1940 UTC.
SPC AC 151940
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
   
   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN GA AND
   SC...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL
   GA...SC AND SRN NC...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN
   VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND CAROLINAS...
   
   ...REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS NRN GA AND SC
   WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING...
   
   ...SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD/ERN TN VALLEY...
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A MORE SUBTLE
   LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE UPPER TN VALLEY AND
   LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS AIDING INTENSE CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN GA AND FAR WRN SC. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   LOCATED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE
   ATLANTA METRO AREA TO JUST SOUTH OF GREENVILLE SC. A CLUSTER OF
   SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND REACH
   THE COLUMBIA SC AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...RUC
   ANALYSIS INDICATES A SLIGHT CAPPING INVERSION EXISTS ACROSS ECNTRL
   GA AND THIS CAP SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. AS
   THIS HAPPENS...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR BETWEEN
   ATLANTA AND MACON GA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SEVERE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
   MOVING EWD INTO ECNTRL GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
   EVENING. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE IN
   GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
   SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6
   HOURS.
   
   CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS HAS A 50 TO
   60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO CNTRL
   GA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS SCNTRL GA THIS AFTERNOON
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS AT AUGUSTA GA SHOW CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND INCREASE 0-3 KM
   STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES FROM ABOUT 300 M2/S2 AT 19Z TO ABOUT 450
   M2/S2 AT 21Z SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN
   ADDITION...SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST LCL HEIGHTS WILL DROP
   ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA AS MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGS SFC DEWPOINTS
   INTO THE MID 60S F MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
   TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CORRIDOR FROM
   ATHENS GA SEWD TO THE AUGUSTA GA AREA AND EWD TO NEAR COLUMBIA SC
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS AND BOW
   ECHOES WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 80 KT. MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY DRIVE THE
   MCS EWD INTO ERN SC AND ACROSS NC SUGGESTING THE TORNADO...WIND
   DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO THE I-95
   CORRIDOR BY EARLY TO MID EVENING.
   
   ...TN VALLEY...
   A LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL WHICH IS
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY ATTM. AS SFC DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS NRN AL...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   GRADUALLY EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE I-65 CORRIDOR. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS AND COLD AIR ALOFT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/15/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z


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