SPC AC 140541
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE
   CAROLINAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU
   REGION INTO MID MS VALLEY WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD INTO THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS BY SATURDAY EVENING AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
   LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  MEANWHILE...TROUGH OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC
   AND WRN STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGS SWD OFF
   THE CA COAST...WITH AN UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY FORMING OVER THE LOWER
   CO VALLEY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   IN THE LOW LEVELS...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
   ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SRN
   APPALACHIANS.  THE NAM SUGGESTS A MORE NRN TRACK TAKING THE LOW FROM
   NERN AR EWD ACROSS TN AND THEN MORE NEWD THROUGH THE TIDEWATER
   REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A MORE SRN TRACK
   WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING FROM NRN MS EWD THROUGH NRN GA AND THEN MORE
   NEWD TO OFF THE NC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP
   ALONG A W-E ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY OR WARM FRONT TRAILING DEEP
   SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
   WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...CNTRL GULF COAST AND
   SERN STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
   
   ...TN VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
   
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG
   SURFACE LOW TRACK SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  GIVEN THE MODEL
   DIFFERENCES IN THIS TRACK...A BROADER ENVELOPE OF LOWER SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN USED TO ADDRESS THIS UNCERTAINTY.
   
   STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS /MAINLY ELEVATED/ ARE EXPECTED TO
   BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH...DRIVEN
   LARGELY BY STRONG WAA ALONG NOSE OF SWLY LLJ.  THIS LLJ WILL MIGRATE
   EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF STATES AND EVENTUALLY INTO GA AND THE
   CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY EVENING SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S TO PERHAPS
   LOWER 60S.  THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
   ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS
   DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG BY
   AFTERNOON.
   
   WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN A CLUSTER OF
   TSTMS ALONG AND N OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OR WARM FRONT IN
   ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORMS SHOULD
   INITIALLY BE ELEVATED BUT MAY TEND TO BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH
   TIME WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
   
   POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   INVOF SURFACE LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS CAPPING IS EVENTUALLY
   OVERCOME BY SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED BOTH IN THE LOW
   LEVELS AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER.  GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY...THE
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS AND TORNADOES.  UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FAST MOVING MCS
   /CONTAINING BOWS AND SUPERCELLS/ MAY OCCUR OVER THE CAROLINAS
   SATURDAY EVENING WITH SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/14/2008
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z