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Day 2 Convective Outlook issued at 1729 UTC 14 March 2008
SPC AC 141729
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008
   
   VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN
   VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS...
   
   ...TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
   ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE SRN
   STATES AS A 90 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET QUICKLY APPROACHES THE TN
   VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A STRONG LOW CENTER IN THE OZARKS EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD WILL MOVE EWD INTO TN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD
   ACROSS MS AND AL DURING THE DAY. A WARM FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
   WILL ALSO LIFT NEWD ACROSS GA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY AFTERNOON.
   SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE
   BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL SHORT-TERM MODELS
   NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION
   SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS TN AND NRN AL REACHING THE SRN APPALACHIAN
   MTNS AROUND MIDDAY. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SATURDAY...CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY TO EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NRN
   GA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN POSSIBLE BY
   SATURDAY EVENING.
   
   CONCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT...MODEL FORECASTS GRADUALLY
   STRENGTHEN VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AS
   THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES. AS A RESULT...SHEAR SHOULD BECOME
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
   WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED...LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AS
   THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL JET MOVE INTO THE
   REGION FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE...SHEAR AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
   ZONE FROM NEAR ATLANTA GA EWD TO NEAR MYRTLE BEACH SC SHOULD HAVE
   THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND THIS SHOULD
   SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE
   INTENSE CELLS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
   SHOW IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH SELY 10 KT FLOW AT THE
   SFC AND ABOUT 45 KT SWLY FLOW AT 850 MB SUGGESTING A TORNADO THREAT
   WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
   EXIST WITH LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK EWD ALONG THE WARM
   FRONT. FURTHER NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NC...MODEL FORECASTS
   SHOW ELEVATED CAPE MOSTLY ABOVE THE 700 MB LEVEL WITH STEEP ENOUGH
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR LARGE HAIL. ALTHOUGH...INSTABILITY WILL
   LIKELY BE STRONGER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN CNTRL GA...A CAPPING
   INVERSION SHOULD KEEP STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE SEVERE THREAT MORE
   ISOLATED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/14/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z


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