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Mesoscale Discussion #0415 issued at 1018 UTC 15 March 2008
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0618 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL GA THRU WRN/SRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 151118Z - 151315Z
   
   A MARGINAL OR RATHER ISOLATED/LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST
   THROUGH MID MORNING.  THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW EAST OF WW 117
   IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
   
   SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHERN
   GEORGIA HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THIS GENERAL
   TREND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE...AS LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
   MINOR SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS LIFTS EAST
   NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS BETWEEN NOW AND 14-16Z. 
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF FORCING TO WEAK SURFACE WARM
   FRONT/LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND EXTENDING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20
   CORRIDOR INTO THE AUGUSTA AREA...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
   CHARLESTON SC...RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  IF THIS OCCURS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 50
   KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION IN
   THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY.  AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
   IS POSSIBLE.  SMALL LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WOULD SEEM TO MINIMIZE
   TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/15/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...


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