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Mesoscale Discussion #0420 issued at 1722 UTC 15 March 2008
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN GA...SC...CENTRAL/ERN AL.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...
   
   VALID 151722Z - 151845Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.
   
   BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED/TORNADIC SUPERCELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   EWD ACROSS NRN GA.  REPORTS OF TORNADO DAMAGE HAVE COME FROM POLK
   COUNTY GA FROM LEADING SUPERCELL...WITH ADDITIONAL TORNADO REPORTS
   FROM BARTOW COUNTY.  THIS STORM MAY CONTINUE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL
   DESPITE MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR MASS JUST N OF SFC WARM
   FRONT OUTLINED BELOW.
   
   ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM
   CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN GA...PERHAPS BACKBUILDING ACROSS NERN AL. 
   SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE MORE UNSTABLE SURFACE BASED INFLOW PARCELS
   THAN INITIAL SUPERCELL BECAUSE OF CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND WAA..AND
   NWD MOTION OF WARM FRONT.  AS OF 17Z FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM
   KERSHAW-GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC WSWWD ACROSS AHN...BECOMING SOMEWHAT
   DIFFUSE ACROSS ATL METRO AREA BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE EFFECTS FROM
   THERE NWD.  THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ABOUT 10 KT
   ACROSS NERN GA AND SC...REINFORCED BOTH BY  DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC
   HEATING AND BY CONVECTION TO ITS N.  STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...VORTICITY...AND 0-1 KM SRH WILL REMAIN
   CONCENTRATED ALONG AND WITHIN 50-60 NM N OF THIS FRONT...WHERE
   MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS STILL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE.  0-1 KM SRH 300-450 J/KG IS INDICATED IN VWP DATA...AND
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT INVOF FRONT. 
   DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S ACROSS E-CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL GA IS MORE
   CONDITIONAL AND UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL FORCING S OF
   FRONT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/15/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...



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