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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1254 UTC 26 August 2008
Click to view the probability of tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind.
SPC AC 261254
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2008
   
   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SERN U.S....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
   PLNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
   THE NRN U.S. THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE WEAK FLOW PERSISTS FROM CA TO
   THE SRN PLNS.  UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE E OVER THE GRT LKS AS STRONG 
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NRN RCKYS ENE INTO MB/WRN ONTARIO.
   IN THE SOUTHEAST...HYBRID REMNANT OF T.D. FAY EXPECTED TO FINALLY
   ACCELERATE NEWD FROM NRN AL THIS MORNING TO ERN KY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
   
   
   ...SERN U.S./SRN APLCNS...
   SATELLITE AND PRESSURE CHANGE DATA SUGGEST THAT REMNANT CIRCULATION
   OF T.D. FAY IS FINALLY MOVING NEWD.  ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD HAS BEEN
   SLOW TO WEAKEN AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO POSE A
   CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AS
   CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY DIURNALLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY. 
   THE GREATEST SVR RISK SHOULD EXIST FROM SW GA NEWD INTO N CNTRL AND
   NERN GA...WHERE 30-35 KT SSWLY 850 MB JET WILL PERSIST ATOP WEAK BUT
   VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC SSE FLOW.  THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL
   SHOWER/STORM ROTATION MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED WHERE NE-MOVING CELLS
   ENCOUNTER WEAK STNRY FRONT/ TERRAIN-INDUCED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
   NRN GA E THROUGH THE SC PIEDMONT INTO SRN NC.  WHILE AN ISOLD SVR
   THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE CAROLINAS...THE THREAT SHOULD
   BE MAINLY DIURNAL GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF WARM MID LVL
   TEMPERATURES.
   
   ...NRN/CNTRL PLNS...
   COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG/PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL
   MOVE STEADILY E ACROSS MT TODAY...REACHING THE WRN DAKS BY AFTN. 
   THE FRONT WILL OVERTAKE MORE SLOWLY-MOVING LEE TROUGH AND CONTINUE
   SE INTO THE MID MO VLY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  STRONG EML
   OVERSPREADING THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS SHOULD CAP THE REGION TO DEEP
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  BUT BY LATE AFTN...
   EXPECT SCTD TSTMS TO FORM ALONG LEE TROUGH AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES
   THAT FEATURE IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SFC HEATING AND INCREASING
   HI-LVL DIFFLUENCE.
   
   HEATING OF NARROW CORRIDOR OF UPR 50S/LWR 60S F DEWPOINTS ALONG LEE
   TROUGH WILL YIELD 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE...MAXIMIZED OVER WRN AND
   CNTRL PARTS OF NEB/SD.  THE STRONGEST MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL LAG THE
   COLD FRONT GIVEN CONFIGURATION OF UPR SYSTEM AND ITS ENE MOTION INTO
   SRN CANADA.  NEVERTHELESS...AMPLE /30-40 KT/ SW TO NWLY DEEP SHEAR
   WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE INITIAL PERIOD OF
   STORM DEVELOPMENT.  ULTIMATELY...HOWEVER...  PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
   STRONG/DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD FAVOR EVOLUTION INTO BROKEN
   LINEAR SEGMENTS THIS EVE.  THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
   PRODUCE BOTH SVR HAIL AND WIND.  SEASONABLY STRONG UVV MAY ALLOW
   CONVECTION IN ND TO PERSIST INTO LATE EVE BEFORE WEAKENING AS
   ASSOCIATED FORCING/DPVA MOVES BEYOND LOW LVL MOISTURE AXIS INTO NW
   MN.  FARTHER S...A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS/POSSIBLE MCS MAY MOVE SE
   ALONG BROADER INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO ERN PARTS OF
   SD/NEB...SUPPORTED BY 30 KT SSWLY LLJ AND DIFFLUENT WNW FLOW ALOFT.
   
   ...AZ/FAR SRN NV/INTERIOR SRN CA...
   DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF AZ AND
   ADJACENT PARTS OF SRN NV/CA...IN PART DUE TO NEARBY PRESENCE OF
   WEAKENING T.D. JULIO TO THE SOUTH.  SCTD TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD
   FORM WITH AFTN HEATING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  EFFECTS OF
   YESTERDAY/S STORMS AND LINGERING CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT ANY ASSOCIATED
   THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND IN ERN AND MUCH OF CNTRL AZ. 
   HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE LWR
   CO VLY IN WRN AZ...AND OVER SE CA/FAR SRN NV...WHERE MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL HEATING WILL OCCUR AND WEAK NELY MID LVL FLOW WILL BE
   PRESENT TO SUPPORT SW-PROPAGATING STORMS.
   
   ..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 08/26/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z


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