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Mesoscale Discussion #0184 issued at 1719 UTC 1 March 2009
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2009
   
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AL/GA/SC
   
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
VALID 011719Z - 012115Z
   
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...GRADUALLY BUILDING
EWD WITH TIME. IN GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RATES OF ACCUMULATION
CAN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH INCH
AN HOUR RATES ARE LIKELY...AS WELL AS BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF
SNOW...MAINLY OVER NRN/CNTRL GA. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS
OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER E CNTRL/NERN GA INTO
CNTRL/WRN SC. 
   
AN INTENSE UPPER LOW IS NOW BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE
SRN AL/GA BORDERS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE HAS BROUGHT
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SNOW INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH RECENT
OBSERVATIONS IN AL IN BIRMINGHAM AND IN GA AT ATLANTA AND FT BENNING
REPORTING MDT/HVY SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET
INTO GA/SC AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS E THEN NE. STRONGEST DEFORMATION
ZONE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...REFLECTED IN RECENT
ENHANCEMENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER NRN/W CNTRL GA AND BACK INTO CNTRL
AL. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING RECENTLY ACROSS THESE
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ATLANTA METRO WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL
INITIALLY BE SLOW TO MOVE EWD...ALLOWING HEAVIER RATES TO LINGER.
DYNAMIC COOLING MAY ALLOW SOME SITES TO SWITCH TO SNOW EARLIER THAN
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE ANTICIPATED...WHILE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH RELATIVE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS TO THE N AND E BEING LIFTED ATOP
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE S AND W WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
SNOWFALL RATES IN AN ALREADY SATURATED AIRMASS. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
SHIFT EWD THEN NEWD...E CNTRL/NERN GA INTO CNTRL/WRN SC WILL BECOME
FAVORED. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NRN
GA...AND AN ELEVATED LAYER OF INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE EWD. AS THIS OCCURS...LOCALIZED BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
CAN BE ANTICIPATED. DESPITE WARM GROUND/SOIL TEMPERATURES...SNOW HAS
BEEN ACCUMULATING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...SHOULD
BANDING/THUNDERSNOW OCCUR...OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHER
THAN MODEL FORECAST WITH RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR POSSIBLE...WHICH
HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE PAST TWO DAYS.
   
..HURLBUT.. 03/01/2009
   
   
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...



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