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Mesoscale Discussion #0185 issued at 1816 UTC 1 March 2009
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CST SUN MAR 01 2009
   
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NWRN NC THRU CNTRL VA
   
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
VALID 011816Z - 012115Z
   
AN INITIAL BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z...THEN LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH SNOW
RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
   
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DEEP CLOSED LOW IS NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AS THIS
PROCESS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DIGGING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MODELS INDICATE THAT
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENESIS WILL STRENGTHENING BENEATH
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...INCLUDING THROUGH THE FAVORABLE MIXED PHASE REGION FOR
LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH.
  
SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST CONCERNING THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES FOR SNOW REACHING THE
SURFACE.  BUT...GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SREF...STILL INDICATE
THAT...IF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT ALREADY SUPPORTIVE...
ENOUGH COOLING WILL PROBABLY OCCUR DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
TO SUPPORT SNOW...OR A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW...FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.  THIS
APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR OR NORTHWEST OF A DANVILLE/RICHMOND LINE BY
THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME...INCLUDING LYNCHBURG...PERHAPS ROANOKE AND
CHARLOTTESVILLE...BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. AREA.
   
IN GENERAL...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ATOP AN INCREASINGLY DEEP
ISOTHERMAL LAYER NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.  THIS WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY WET SNOW...AND MID-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE BURSTS...PERHAPS
ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED LIGHTNING.
   
..KERR.. 03/01/2009
   
   
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...



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