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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 0547 UTC 8 April 2010

Hail probabilityTornado probabilityWind probability

SPC AC 080547
   
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT THU APR 08 2010
   
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO THE LEE OF THE
LWR GREAT LAKES...
   
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL STATES DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
CYCLONIC REGIME...INCLUDING AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS
PROGGED TO LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY...AS
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS PIVOT AROUND ITS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY.  AT THE SAME...A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
LARGER SCALE TROUGH...BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER TENNESSEE
VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND NORTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  
   
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY/TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES.  MOISTENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM A SLOWLY DEEPENING CYCLONE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
INHIBITION MAY DELAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS....WHERE ACTIVITY MAY NOT FORM UNTIL CLOSER TO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
...SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO LEE OF LWR GREAT LAKES...
WHILE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN THE CAPPING AND THE WEAK NATURE OF
THE MOISTURE RETURN...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAPE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IS
UNCLEAR.  CLOUD COVER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PROBLEM
WITH REGARD TO SURFACE HEATING...SO LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROBABLY
WILL BECOME FAIRLY STEEP...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IF NOT ALSO HAIL.

CYCLONIC...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY 50+ KT MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY...CONTRIBUTING TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ENHANCING DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS. 
AND MODELS ARE GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850
MB FLOW /40-50 KT/ FROM THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS
LATTER DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE MOST CONCENTRATED SEVERE
THREAT...AS STORMS DEVELOP IN THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH...IN RESPONSE
TO ONE OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.  INITIATION OF STRONGEST STORMS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...PRIOR TO 09/00Z...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD AND
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE URBAN
CORRIDOR BETWEEN WASHINGTON D.C. AND PHILADELPHIA...BY 09/03Z.
   
..KERR/STOPPKOTTE.. 04/08/2010
   
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z



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