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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1729 UTC 7 April 2010
SPC AC 071729
   
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED APR 07 2010
   
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS GA TO SRN NY...
   
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER CONUS
THROUGH PERIOD.  STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EXTENDING SWWD AND NEWD
FROM MID-UPPER CYCLONE OVER KS/NEB BORDER -- IS FCST TO ASSUME MORE
NEUTRAL TILT AS UPSTREAM VORTICITY LOBES MOVE THROUGH BELT OF
CYCLONIC FLOW SW-SE OF LOW.  PHASING WITH NRN STREAM THROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN AND NWRN ONT -- WILL
RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF CYCLONE OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
9/00Z...MOVING EWD ACROSS THAT PART OF ONT N OF LH DURING ENSUING 12
HOURS.  MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW APCHG 140W IN NERN PAC
-- SHOULD MOVE ASHORE NWRN COAST EARLY IN PERIOD BEFORE PIVOTING
ENEWD OVER ID/MT.  COLD AIR ALOFT AND RELATED STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...ATOP MARINE MOISTURE...MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHALLOW TSTMS
NEAR WA/ORE COAST.
   
AT SFC...LOW ANALYZED AT 7/15Z OVER EXTREME NERN MO IS FCST TO MOVE
ENEWD ACROSS LOWER MI BY 8/12Z AND OCCLUDE.  COLD/QUASISTATIONARY
FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST WEAKLY RECOGNIZABLE LOW. 
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE FROM ERN OH...TN VALLEY...SERN LA CORRIDOR AT
8/12Z TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...OUTER BANKS...N-CENTRAL FL REGIONS NEAR
END OF PERIOD.  QUASISTATIONARY FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SRN NEW
ENGLAND AND SERN NY BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN FROM W-E BY COLD FRONT.
   
...MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO GA/CAROLINAS...
EPISODIC BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ELONGATED
CORRIDOR FROM SRN NY/PA SWWD AT LEAST ACROSS PORTIONS
CAROLINAS...AND POSSIBLY INTO GA...AS FOREGOING MOIST AIR MASS --
I.E. TO LOW 60S MOST AREAS AND MID 60S NEAR GULF COAST --
DESTABILIZES DIURNALLY.  ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
WEAK..SO WILL CINH...AND LIFT INVOF FRONT AND/OR PREFRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE TSTMS.  AMBIENT
WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH AREA UNDER ERN RIM OF ROUGHLY
50 KT 500 MB FLOW AND 50-75 KT WINDS IN 250-300 MB LAYER.  MEAN WIND
AND BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE FCST TO BE ALIGNED ONLY SLIGHTLY
RIGHTWARD OF CONVECTIVE/FRONTAL ORIENTATION...HOWEVER SOME LEWP/BOW
FORMATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE WIND POTENTIAL
LOCALLY.  ELONGATED AND SLIGHTLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
FCST...SUITABLE FOR SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION IN ANY RELATIVELY
DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP...EITHER IN EARLY STAGES OF
ORGANIZATION OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDS...OR IN WARM SECTOR TO
THEIR E.
   
MORE CONCENTRATED CORRIDORS OF SVR POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS OUTLOOK
AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS SPECIFIC MESOSCALE FOCI...I.E. AREAS OF
MORE PROBABLE/SUSTAINED AND PREFRONTAL SFC HEATING...BECOME MORE
CERTAIN.
   
SVR POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH NWD THROUGH QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
AS BUOYANCY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED.
   
...UPPER OH VALLEY...WRN APPALACHIANS TO ERN GULF COAST...
ONE OR MORE BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS WRN PA/OH SWWD
ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION...CONTINUING FROM DAY-1 PERIOD.  WEAKNESS OF
BOTH INSTABILITY AND BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT STRENGTH/COVERAGE OF SVR
THREAT...WITH MOST FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LESS THAN 300 J/KG MLCAPE
FROM ERN TN NWD...AND EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS OFTEN ROOTED ABOVE
SFC.  BUOYANCY WILL BE SOMEWHAT GREATER WITH SWD EXTENT FROM ERN TN
ACROSS AL...BUT FOLLOWING GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IN CONVERGENCE. 
THEREFORE SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/MRGL FOR CATEGORICAL
OUTLOOK.
   
..EDWARDS.. 04/07/2010
   
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



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