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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 0522 UTC 16 April 2011

Hail probabilityTornado probabilityWind probability

SPC AC 160522
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS
   INTO SRN VA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN GA THROUGH THE
   CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL EJECT NEGATIVELY
   TILTED THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS SATURDAY...REACHING THE CAROLINAS
   AND MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP OCCLUDED LOW WILL
   DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE
   ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW. WEAKER SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS MAY
   OCCUR OVER NC/VA WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ROTATING THROUGH
   UPPER TROUGH BASE. OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE OH
   VALLEY TODAY...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC BY EVENING...WHILE WARM
   FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA. 
   
   ...SERN GA...CAROLINAS MID ATLANTIC...
   
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT FROM THE OH
   VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS INTO A PORTION OF GA. RICHER
   MOISTURE WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD ALONG A STRONG LLJ
   THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WARM SECTOR WITH 50S FARTHER NORTH ACROSS VA.
   THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM
   ERN GA THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC WARMING OF
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO OCCUR. PRIMARY LLJ WILL SHIFT NEWD
   THROUGH OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...SRN EXTENSION OF THE
   LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON WITHIN DIVERGENT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. STORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT BY
   LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES
   FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO VA. VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH TORNADOES AND
   DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS...ESPECIALLY IN MODERATE RISK AREA.
   
   INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MORE LIMITED WITH NWD EXTENT INTO THE MID
   ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY EXIST AS FAR NORTH
   AS SRN PA AND NJ AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. STORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
   OFFSHORE BY MID EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL/COHEN.. 04/16/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z




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