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Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1257 UTC 16 April 2011

Hail probabilityTornado probabilityWind probability

SPC AC 161257
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011
   
   VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS
   AND SRN VA...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
   AREA...FROM GA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   IL UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEADILY EWD TODAY...EVOLVING INTO A
   POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH...THE AXIS OF WHICH SHOULD EXTEND
   FROM CNTRL OH TO WRN NC BY THIS EVE.  THE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND OFF
   THE NJ CST BY 12Z SUN AS A NEW UPR LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
   UPR GRT LKS.
   
   AT THE SFC...DEEP OCCLUDED LOW WILL DRIFT N ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS. 
   THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...NOW CRESTING THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS...SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND ACCELERATE ENE
   ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
   ADVANCES NE INTO CNTRL/SE VA.  A WEAK AREA OF SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
   MAY OCCUR OVER NW NC/SW VA...IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ROTATING
   THROUGH BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH.
   
   ...SE GA/CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC...
   SCTD TSTMS NOW PRESENT FROM UPSTATE SC TO S GA/THE FL PANHANDLE  ARE
   REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY'S SUPERCELLS IN MS/AL.  THE LONGEVITY OF THESE
   UPDRAFTS...THEIR MOVEMENT INTO ZONE OF LOW-LVL MOISTENING/WAA OVER
   THE SAVANNAH RVR VLY/UPSTATE SC...AND ONSET OF DAYTIME
   HEATING...SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REJUVENATE INTO
   STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS MORNING.  GIVEN CHARACTER AND STRENGTH OF
   WIND PROFILES...THESE COULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT
   FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   
   IN THE MEAN TIME...SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INTO
   THE 60S F AND PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY N ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS AND SRN VA TODAY WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ.  THIS ...COUPLED
   WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING...SHOULD YIELD
   SUFFICIENT LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE STRONG STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT FROM ERN GA/UPSTATE SC INTO S CNTRL VA.
    OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT FROM
   NEAR KCHS NWD INTO ERN NC.
   
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY INCREASINGLY
   DIVERGENT UPR FLOW IN EXIT REGION JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF UPR
   TROUGH.  LONG...HOOKED HODOGRAPHS AND MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT
   WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS WITH TORNADOES
   AND DMGG WINDS...IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   
   LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN MORE LIMITED WITH NWD EXTENT
   INTO WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  NEVERTHELESS...THIS AREA WILL
   BE SUBJECT TO STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/DEEP WIND FIELD THAN
   POINTS FARTHER S...SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS
   ISOLD TORNADOES AS FAR N AS WV/MD/SRN PA BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
   DIMINISHES/SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT.
   
   ..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 04/16/2011
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z




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